America’s population growth is declining and this will shape what our cities look like in the future. In 2023, only 500,000 lives were added to America’s population.
A new study, published in the journal Nature Cities by three researchers at the University of Illinois Chicago, predicts that by 2100 almost half of the 30,000 cities in the United States will lose up to a quarter of their population. At the moment, 43% of cities in the United Sates are losing population, 40% are gaining, and the remaining have fluctuating trends.
The researchers combined data from the U.S. Census as well as data that anticipates different climate change scenarios to create their analysis. They predict that the Midwest and Northeast will see the greatest declines, with urban cities that have lower household incomes taking the greatest hits. Meanwhile, high-income cities in suburban and rural areas are expected to increase in population.
This has implications for how cities will need to be redesigned. The study’s authors point out that Flint, Michigan, and Jackson, Missouri, are already seeing water challenges because of population decline. For example, Flint’s government decided that it needed a cheaper alternative than pipping in treated water from Detroit and instead brought in water from the Flint River, which corroded the lead in the water pipes, contaminating everyone’s drinking water.
“The takeaway is that we need to shift away from growth-based planning, which is going to require an enormous cultural shift . . . ,” senior author Sybil Derrible told Scientific American. “We should see this not as a problem but as an opportunity to rethink the way we do things,” Derrible added. It’s an opportunity to be more creative.”
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