Some people seem overly eager to declare the meatless meat industry dead. The promise of so-called alt protein (admittedly not a very catchy term) was to create healthier alternatives to animal meat so indistinguishably delicious from the real thing that they eventually overtook the entire industry. That has yet to become a reality, which should be no surprise given how enormous and entrenched the animal-meat industry is. But as flagship companies like Beyond Meat show weakening market share, cratering stock prices, and bonds screaming “bankruptcy,” the understandable reflex is to question whether the innovative alternatives entering the market will, ultimately, be just a flash in the pan.
The reality is that the alt-protein industry is experiencing what every new technology does: the hype cycle. And it predicts that the best is yet to come. In other words, in an era of rapid technological advancements and mass markets, new innovations often emerge as a passing craze, while enduring innovations withstand challenges and provide meaningful uses and genuine value.
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a framework that describes the regular, predictable progression of new technologies from initial excitement to widespread adoption. This hype cycle separates the innovations that will last from the ones that won’t, and I’m convinced alt protein is firmly in the former category.
How does the hype cycle work?
It begins with a breakthrough: Innovators promise their new product or technology will bring changes for the better, and consumers come to expect these changes. Take blockchain, for example. Three or four years ago, it was a sudden solution for everything. As this technology became all the rage, there was a solid year when you couldn’t avoid the term, NFT; nowadays, these conversations have flatlined. And remember the “metaverse,” the virtual reality layer of life that Mark Zuckerberg sank billions into creating just last year? It has recently been declared dead. In both cases, it’s not likely we’re seeing the last of these creations. Instead, we’re witnessing their next phase in the hype cycle: the trough of disillusionment.
In the “trough” stage, interest wanes as the first movers are unable to deliver on big expectations. Startups fold, business models fail, and investors get skittish. This is the crucible in which many companies, and sometimes entire emerging industries, are sorted. Those that manage to survive often go on to secure mainstream approval.
Take virtual reality as another example. VR technology has been around for decades, but it wasn’t until recently that it started gaining a mainstream footing. In the early 2010s, many companies experimented with it, but we saw few practical applications. In 2016, VR saw a handful of high-profile success stories with buzzworthy companies like Oculus Rift and HTC, but the expectations overshot reality. By 2018, these technology producers started to shake out and fail. Today, VR is finally finding its footing with a newfound set of expectations and values. Like many innovations before it, VR companies are identifying more practical uses for the technology, albeit with a less world-transforming scope than was initially promised.
Or consider electric cars. Their increasing popularity isn’t just due to environmental concerns or trendiness; rather, it’s the practical appeal: lower ownership costs, reduced maintenance, and less fuel reliance. Similarly, the rise of next-generation meatless meats won’t thrive on health or environmental benefits alone. Instead, their longevity relies on the ability to fulfill a primary purpose: providing a delicious alternative to traditional meat. Like electric cars, successful alt-protein innovations will move beyond the fad stage when they can provide this core value to the majority of the population, while sustainability and health advantages simply strengthen the package deal.
Alt protein enters its hype cycle
It may seem strange to think of animal-free meat going through the same hype cycle as other modern technologies, but in many ways, the bill fits. Pureed vegetable patties have been around for quite some time. Today’s crop of alt-protein companies rely on entirely new methods—precisely orchestrating natural or chemical processes through precision fermentation or genetic engineering—to arrive at products that aren’t “veggie patties.” This new class of food serves a demand as old as life itself. The companies leading the charge are largely research-based, modeled much like classic tech startups, employing scientists and engineers alongside their chefs. It should be no surprise that alternative meats go through the same stages of growth and maturity—and slowdowns—that other technologies do.
Keep in mind that these journeys often overlap and intertwine. If the smartphone ever declines into obsolescence, it won’t be due to the reduced need for portable computation and communication—that category, which the smartphone didn’t create but certainly does define, has only increased in value and importance. We may come to see meatless proteins in a similar way. If a given company, product, or technology breaks it before they make it, that doesn’t mean the overall tide of innovation in the space won’t prove to be successful, even transformative. As Steve Jobs said, category-redefining entrants totally violate our expectations for growth, often to the upside.
Digging out of the trough of disillusionment
Looking beyond stock prices, the trend for alt protein remains one of increased approval, even if the rate of that excitement has slowed. Plant-based meat retail sales have grown by 74% over the past three years, 60% of food-service operators now consider it a long-term trend, and four times as many chefs and restaurant owners plan to add more meatless options to their menus this year rather than reduce them. The global plant-based meat market is expected to reach $35.4 billion by 2027, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15.8%.
As the alt-protein market continues to grow, companies will prioritize improved taste while offering even better nutrition and greater sustainability than before. The appeal begins to extend past the narrow vegan and vegetarian segments to a much broader range of consumers. Like the smartphone, alt protein will become increasingly more relevant as innovations deliver better results and necessity demands greater adoption.
Indeed, the doom and gloom narratives skip over the necessity factor. Alt meat belongs to a universe of technologies that aim to correct what have become unsustainable aspects of human civilization. Its humanitarian value is inherent in the problem it seeks to solve. Animal agriculture already uses more land than any other industry, and finding better ways of producing food isn’t just about creating hype, it’s a key part of ensuring that we leave a thriving planet and society to future generations without sacrifice to the other crucial value: taste. That’s a lot to put on the packaging.
Still, the challenges faced by the first wave of companies are a necessary part of the process. The next hurdle is to create next-gen alt-protein technologies and products so compelling—delicious, nutritious, with clean labels, and sustainable profit margins—that they naturally make intensive animal agriculture obsolete. That’s the unique promise of alt protein, and it seems more certain than ever. The history of technology shows that it is possible, and the patterns tell us that, sooner than many think, we may be looking back in amazement that people ate cows at all.
Eben Bayer is the cofounder and CEO of MyForest Foods.
Recognize your brand’s excellence by applying to this year’s Brands That Matter Awards before the early-rate deadline, May 3.
