Ever since ChatGPT’s release, Americans have been wrestling with the idea of generative artificial intelligence automating our existence. Large language models that are trained on unfathomable volumes of data, libraries upon libraries, can author reams of their own knowledgeable texts, even mimicking human speech. Debates now rage over whether ChatGPT-style tech will be the springboard to humanity’s great leap forward, or the beginning of the end of civilization by the rise of the machines.
But according to a working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, some companies could, at least, make a lot of money before we reach the apocalyptic precipice. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based agency ranked the 100 biggest publicly traded firms (based on market capitalization) by their level of exposure to ChatGPT among their workforces. The higher the exposure, the greater the potential for the firm’s stock to jump as the tech supercharges labor-force productivity.
Here, the top 15 companies that could rally with ChatGPT:
- IBM
- Intuit
- Qualcomm
- Fiserv
- Nvidia
- S&P Global
- Broadcom
- Verizon
- Microsoft
- 3M
- Advanced Micro Devices
- ServiceNow
- Adobe
- PayPal
- Thermo Fisher Scientific
Unsurprisingly, many are computer engineering firms, ranging from software development to semiconductor manufacturing.
Intriguingly, the report notes, the specific occupations that are most affected are those with nonroutine cognitive tasks—analysis, etc.—rather than routine cognitive tasks, like formulaic number crunching. (Also notable: Earlier this month, IBM’s chief executive told Bloomberg that the company expects to put a hiring freeze on jobs that it believes could be replaced by AI in the next five years, which was estimated to be roughly 7,800 jobs.)
In contrast, the report also listed the 15 companies with the least exposure to ChatGPT—and likewise, the least risk of workers being replaced by such tech:
- Starbucks
- McDonald’s
- Dollar General
- Target
- Walmart
- Lowe’s
- TJX Companies
- Costco
- Union Pacific
- CSX
- UPS
- Home Depot
- Tesla
- Northrop Grumman
- Mondelez International
Also unsurprisingly, many are in retail, which traffics in brick-and-mortar and relies heavily on manual tasks.
According to the report, firms with higher exposure to ChatGPT outperformed firms with lower exposure by more than 40 points in daily excess returns, in the two weeks following ChatGPT’s release.
The question remains: Will GPT-style tech serve to augment human workforces in the coming decades, like the invention of the calculator did for mathematicians? Or will it make those humans obsolete, carrying out tasks in just the blink of an eye that once took an entire 9 a.m.-to-5 p.m. workday in office? On this, the National Bureau of Economic Research said, “we do not take a stand.”
See the full report here.
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