7% of new cars sold in the U.S. are electric. Here’s what it will take to hit 50% by 2030

When the Biden administration set a goal for 50% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. to be electric by the end of the decade, some skeptics questioned whether it would work. But it now seems feasible—and it could possibly even happen sooner than 2030. “There were a lot of analysts and critics who said that was not going to be achievable,” says Ali Zaidi, climate advisor for the White House. “Now we’re asking the question of whether we can go further and faster.”

Last year, EVs passed a threshold of 5% of new car sales in the U.S. (Sales hit 7% in January.) The number sounds small, but when other countries hit the same point, that’s when electric vehicles started to quickly take off. (In Norway, after EV sales hit 5% in 2013, they more than doubled the following year; they reached 54% in 2020 and nearly 80% in 2022.) Other technologies, from the internet to mobile phones, have followed similar adoption curves, when the tech suddenly expands from a small group of early adopters to the mainstream. While getting to the 50% goal in the U.S. will be a challenge, multiple factors are making it increasingly likely to happen.

Federal funding for EVs is surging

The funding in the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill includes around $100 billion to support EVs—30 times more than any previous federal investment in electric vehicles. One analysis from the International Council on Clean Transportation and the policy think tank Energy Innovation projects that because of the IRA, EVs could make up between 48% and 61% of new light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs, and trucks under 8,500 pounds) by 2030. That’s even without other policies that are coming, like new pollution standards for cars from the EPA.

If you’re buying a new EV, you can now get up to a $7,500 tax credit, depending on whether parts came from North America and the car was assembled in the U.S. (the IRS will soon release guidance on exactly what qualifies). That’s spawned a wave of new investments in American factories. Ford is building new battery plants in Kentucky and Michigan as well as a factory in Tennessee that will integrate battery manufacturing with assembly of its electric trucks. General Motors is investing in domestic factories for producing EV parts. BMW is building a new battery factory and expanding EV production at an existing U.S. plant. Tesla, Honda, Kia, and others are also expanding battery production or EV assembly in the U.S.

“The market is already responding to the changes, and that’s going to be very favorable for the light-duty passenger EV market,” says Sara Baldwin, senior director of electrification policy at Energy Innovation. The investment in battery manufacturing over the past two years has put the country on track to supply 13 million EVs a year when those factories are fully operating, says Zaidi. (Last year, 13.75 million cars and light trucks of any kind were sold.)

Supply chains and charging infrastructure are scaling up quickly

Having a supply of critical materials for batteries, including lithium and cobalt, will likely be more of a challenge, and a mining industry group estimates that hundreds of mines, all with long-permitting processes, could be necessary to meet demand both for EV batteries and clean electricity. New approaches to mining could help. In California’s Salton Sea, with support from the Department of Energy, three companies are tapping into existing geothermal power plants to try to mine lithium from the brine that comes from the power plants. If it works at scale, it will be better for the environment than current lithium mining. And it could eventually supply 600,000 tons of lithium a year, more than total global production now. New battery-recycling plants can also help supply materials, and other companies are developing new batteries that can avoid the use of materials like nickel and cobalt—simultaneously avoiding the environmental and human costs of mining.

Utilities also will have to prepare for a surge in EV charging. “There’s going to be a need to make sure that the grid and distribution and transmission are ultimately capable and ready,” says Ben Prochazka, executive director of the nonprofit Electrification Coalition. It will need to get easier to permit new infrastructure, including renewable energy to supply the power needed. (Careful planning can also help: A recent MIT study found that strategically placing charging stations so that cars can charge at off-peak times, and using smart charging equipment to control charging times, could help avoid the need to build new power plants.)

By one estimate, around eight times more EV chargers will be needed by 2030. Last September, the first round of federal funding started flowing to states to help build a national network of chargers. Private companies, like Hertz and BP and Starbucks, Chargepoint, and Volvo, are also helping build new public charging stations. “We’re seeing that investment catalyze private action, including companies like Tesla opening up their network and buying into this proposition that we need an interoperable and affordable system,” says Zaidi.

Car brands are finally committing to make the switch

As car companies begin to commit to electrification—like Volkswagen, which is investing $193 billion to make the switch globally—EV marketing is also growing. Three out of four car ads at the last Super Bowl were for EVs or plug-in hybrids. In a survey last year of thousands of Americans, more than a third said that they would “definitely” or “seriously” consider buying an EV, even though almost half were unaware of the new tax credits. Those who had personally experienced being in an EV in the past were much more likely to be interested in buying one.

As more people have a chance to drive electric cars—for example, as Hertz acquires a massive fleet of electric cars and people begin to rent them—that will help drive more adoption, Prochazka says. “They ultimately become the next generation of EV advocates because the technology is better: It’s a faster, quieter, better drive,” he says. “So fleet commitments, I think, are going to be an important part of helping drive the consumer market because those vehicles will be everywhere. They’re very visible.”

While it’s possible that the U.S. will reach the goal of 50% EV sales by the end of the decade, Baldwin says it’s necessary to go even further in order to meet climate goals. “We crunched the numbers to determine what the net contribution of the transportation sector is relative to our . . . goals, and we do need to go beyond that 50%,” she says. “The good news is that the IRA is just one tool in the toolbox. Other regulations can help close that gap.” And, of course, electric vehicles are only one part of the climate solution for transportation—huge electric SUVs and trucks pose their own problems, and cities also need to move faster to build up public transit and become more walkable and bikeable in order to meet climate goals.