Going into November’s midterm elections, one of the most closely watched votes is a ballot initiative in Michigan, which will determine whether the state can enforce a 1931 abortion ban following the fall of Roe v. Wade. The ballot measure would protect the right to abortion—as well as contraception and other pregnancy-related decisions—in the state’s constitution.
Michigan has long had restrictive policies around abortion care, from mandatory counseling to significant limits on insurance coverage for the procedure. In anticipation of the Supreme Court’s decision this summer, abortion advocates in the state fought to get the constitutional amendment on the ballot and put it to a vote. If it doesn’t pass, state courts could reinstate the ban that predates Roe, which is currently blocked by an injunction.
And Michigan isn’t the only state where the upcoming election could have a consequential impact on abortion access. California and Vermont have similar initiatives on the ballot on November 8 that could enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. Both states do already have strong abortion protections.
Kentucky voters, however, will be weighing in on a constitutional amendment that would do the exact opposite—deny the right to abortion and prohibit any government funding for abortion care. This amendment is similar to the one Kansas voters rejected a few months ago. The proposed Kentucky amendment is especially notable for being an anti-abortion measure that would reinforce Kentucky’s trigger law, which bars all abortions except in cases of life endangerment, and is among the most restrictive abortion bans in the country. And in Montana, where abortion remains legal, a ballot measure could potentially green-light a “born-alive” law, which would dictate that a fetus or infant is a legal person, even if they’re the product of a failed abortion.
There are signs voters will come out in support of codifying abortion rights, even in a purple state like Michigan. Despite pushback from Republican state officials and anti-abortion groups—including Michigan Right to Life, which reportedly earmarked $16 million for advertising that opposed the amendment—advocates for Michigan’s constitutional amendment gathered more than 750,000 signatures in favor of putting it to a vote, well over the 425,000 signatures required for inclusion on the ballot. Michigan voters indicated support in an October poll as well, with 60% saying they will be or are leaning toward voting Yes on the amendment. The enthusiastic response in Kansas—where voters upheld abortion rights by a 165,000-vote margin—may be a strong predictor of turnout in all states where abortion is on the ballot.
Currently, abortion remains legal with few limitations in 24 states, while 14 states have outright banned or severely restricted abortion access; in another 12 states, abortion bans either begin at 15 weeks, or more extreme measures have been temporarily blocked by court orders.
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