With the official start to fall only a week away and the commencement of colder weather, concerns are growing that we could be on the cusp of a rapid increase in delta variant COVID-19 infections. One of the best ways to dampen this likely rise, of course, is getting a vaccine. But even then, we could be in for a deluge of infection as the colder months progress. Though it’s impossible to know exactly how bad things could get in the long term, in the short term we have a much better idea. The Mayo Clinic has put together an interactive map that charts COVID-19 hotspots in the U.S. for the prior 60 days—and forecasts where the hotspots will be two weeks out.
Mayo is quick to note that their forecast isn’t a firm prediction, and things can change based on external factors like personal behavior (vaccination rates and whether people adhere to social distancing and mask-wearing), however, their predictions are based on 500 individual simulations in order to be as accurate as possible.
To see the 14-day forecast, toggle the “Show 14-day forecast” switch under the map to on, then adjust the slider to show any of the next 14 days. As you do, you’ll see some areas on the map changes shades. If a state becomes darker in color, that means hotspots in the state are likely to become worse—i.e., infections will increase. You can also click on any state to see the average number of daily cases predicted on that day as well as the predicted number of infections per 100,000 people.