Coronavirus-related job losses are already piling up, and now a new prediction from the Economic Policy Institute says 14 million jobs could be cut by the summer—even with $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus.
The EPI published a map Wednesday showing how the estimated 14 million losses will likely be distributed between the 50 states:
In absolute terms: California and Texas are projected to lose the greatest number of jobs, with California losing 1,609,975 and Texas losing 1,180,580.
In relative terms: Nevada is projected to lose the greatest percentage of its private-sector workforce, with 14.2%, or 177,749 people, out of work. This is probably because leisure, hospitality, and retail—the industries hit hardest by coronavirus—account for 40.2% of the state’s private-sector employment, which is the greatest percentage among all 50 states.
These map projections are based heavily on states’ relative shares of leisure, hospitality, and retail jobs, the EPI explains. But the group also proffered a spreadsheet with states’ relative shares of natural resources, mining, and manufacturing jobs, so you can make your own projections by assigning weight to alternate at-risk industries. (Note: This requires math.)
While the EPI’s prediction includes $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus, the group estimates that we’ll need at least $2.1 trillion to “restore the country to a reasonable economic health.” The Senate is set to vote on a $2 trillion stimulus package later today; it’s unclear how the bill’s passing might impact job loss projections.