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Fred Wilson on crypto: “We will slowly enter a new bullish phase”

Fred Wilson on crypto: “We will slowly enter a new bullish phase”
[Photo: Flickr user Joi Ito]

Union Square Ventures co-founder Fred Wilson has published his annual post about the year ahead. It’s a long and sprawling piece of writing that tries to divine both the technology and financial worlds. Wilson sees Trump being a one-term president, a shaky equities market, and an overall bumpy ride for investors. Despite this, he maintains that he’s “incredibly optimistic.”

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Wilson is a technology investor, so it shouldn’t come as a shock that he has thoughts on the blockchain world and what lies ahead for it. 2018 was undoubtedly devastating for crypto-enthusiasts, what with bitcoin’s value dropping over 80% and others seeing similarly catastrophic falls. Many have wondered if this latest drop is the bottom, or if there’s more slippage on the horizon.

According to Wilson, the next year is going to be rough, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. He writes:

I think we are in the process of finding the bottom on the large, liquid, and lasting crypto-tokens. But I think that process could take much of 2019 to play out. I expect we will see some bullish runs, followed by selling pressures taking us back to retest the lows. I think this bottoming out process will end sometime in 2019 and we will slowly enter a new bullish phase in crypto.

He sees the launch of anticipated blockchain-based projects giving the ecosystem some much-needed momentum. Smart contracts, Wilson writes, will be an area where we will likely see some real progress. He goes on to say that regulation will be an issue overall; “The area I am most concerned about are actions brought by misguided regulators who will take aim at high quality projects and harm them.”

What’s more, the investor foresees even more crypto scams and failures on the horizon. That, he writes, “is always the case with a new emerging technology that allows anyone to set up shop and get going.”

Even though Wilson sees stumbling blocks, he presents an overall positive outlook for the future of crypto. Of course, he has a few blockchain-based companies in his portfolio, so that likely has something to do with it. Even so, the message may give some a sigh of relief. All they have to do is wait out most of 2019.

You can read Wilson’s full future-looking post here.

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