Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has a years-long track record of accurately predicting everything from new Macs to new iPhones, says he is cutting his original shipment estimates for Apple’s new iPhone XR from 100 million units in the current holiday quarter to 70 million units, reports MacRumors. Kuo cites three reasons for his revised lower estimate:
- Negative impacts on consumer confidence from the Chinese-American trade war
- Consumers holding off for a more affordable iPhone XR with a dual-lens camera system
- Increased competition from Huawei’s Mate 20 series
However, it’s important to note that Kuo is not saying Apple will sell 30 million fewer iPhones during the holiday quarter. While Kou now thinks Apple will sell fewer iPhone XRs, he believes some of those customers will opt for the higher-end iPhone XS models or the lower-end iPhone 8 model.
So is Kuo right? He’s got an amazing track record–and that’s not even to mention that Apple has announced it will stop reporting unit sales of its iPhones next quarter, suggesting Apple is expecting a downturn as well.