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Bookmakers: Trump impeachment odds are way up after Cohen plea

Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen admitted his client instructed him to pay hush money to two women. Meanwhile, the Mueller noose tightens.

Bookmakers: Trump impeachment odds are way up after Cohen plea
[Photo: Quentin REY/Unsplash; Flickr user Marco Verch; Flickr user Gage Skidmore]
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Betting that Trump will be removed from the Oval Office isn’t an easy way to make money.

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After Trump’s weak showing with Putin in Helsinki last month, betting odds were very high that the president would be impeached, but they’re even higher now in the wake of two damaging stories this week: Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen fingered him in federal court for ordering the payment of hush money to two women in 2016, while his campaign chairman Paul Manafort was indicted on eight counts of financial crimes in a Virginia federal court.

The U.K. bookmaker Paddy Power has the odds of Trump being impeached before the end of his term at 6/4, or what the U.K. and Ireland betting houses see as a 40% chance. After the Helsinki conference, those same betting houses saw the chance of impeachment as only 30%, Paddy Power PR head Lee Price tells me.

It’s not quite a record, though. Paddy Power bettors saw the chance of impeachment as even higher when news broke that Trump knew in advance about Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with Russian agents at Trump Tower in 2016.

Following Cohen’s guilty plea and Manafort’s sentencing, the American betting house BetDSI.com says it cut odds on the possibility of the House impeaching Trump in his first term. Among bettors using BetDSI, Trump is now an overwhelming favorite to be impeached before 2021. The odds are 1/5 or -500. That means a bettor would have to risk $500 just to win $100 on a bet that Trump will be impeached. Before Cohen’s guilty plea earlier this week, the odds were -150, BetDSI’s Scott Cooley tells me.

About the author

Fast Company Senior Writer Mark Sullivan covers emerging technology, politics, artificial intelligence, large tech companies, and misinformation. An award-winning San Francisco-based journalist, Sullivan's work has appeared in Wired, Al Jazeera, CNN, ABC News, CNET, and many others.

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