Betting that Trump will be removed from the Oval Office isn’t an easy way to make money.
After Trump’s weak showing with Putin in Helsinki last month, betting odds were very high that the president would be impeached, but they’re even higher now in the wake of two damaging stories this week: Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen fingered him in federal court for ordering the payment of hush money to two women in 2016, while his campaign chairman Paul Manafort was indicted on eight counts of financial crimes in a Virginia federal court.
The U.K. bookmaker Paddy Power has the odds of Trump being impeached before the end of his term at 6/4, or what the U.K. and Ireland betting houses see as a 40% chance. After the Helsinki conference, those same betting houses saw the chance of impeachment as only 30%, Paddy Power PR head Lee Price tells me.
It’s not quite a record, though. Paddy Power bettors saw the chance of impeachment as even higher when news broke that Trump knew in advance about Donald Trump Jr.’s meeting with Russian agents at Trump Tower in 2016.
Following Cohen’s guilty plea and Manafort’s sentencing, the American betting house BetDSI.com says it cut odds on the possibility of the House impeaching Trump in his first term. Among bettors using BetDSI, Trump is now an overwhelming favorite to be impeached before 2021. The odds are 1/5 or -500. That means a bettor would have to risk $500 just to win $100 on a bet that Trump will be impeached. Before Cohen’s guilty plea earlier this week, the odds were -150, BetDSI’s Scott Cooley tells me.