Each year, Recode’s Code conference hosts Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers partner Mary Meeker as she unveils her annual slide deck of factoids and forecasts about the technology business. And the Wall Street Journal’s D.Live conference is the home of a similar presentation by Activate’s Michael Wolf. Wolf presented highlights from his research this afternoon here in Laguna Beach, California, but you can peruse it in its entirety:
A few tidbits:
- Wolf says that smart speakers such as Amazon’s Echo will have the fastest growth curve in gadget history–but that they’ll peak in two years, and services such as Alexa will be built into gizmos of all sorts thereafter, obviating the need for dedicated devices.
- Most people who own a smart speaker today are using it only for basic tasks; nearly two-thirds have installed no third-party skills.
- Only 3% of groceries are currently purchased online, but the category will be the next online-retail battleground.
- In areas where Walmart has more physical stores, it also gets more online traffic–a fact it should be able to leverage in the battle against Amazon.
- Even with the cost of virtual-reality gear from companies such as Oculus falling, Wolf expects augmented reality rather than VR to be the big short-term opportunity.
- Online pay-TV services such as DirecTV Now and YouTube TV are not going to crush traditional cable, in part because large swaths of the U.S. don’t have fast enough broadband to make for a good experience.