Analyst Gene Munster at Loup Ventures has been tracking shipping lead times of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus since preorders started on Friday. Lead times for the phones were one to two weeks through the weekend, suggesting that the phones ordered will ship on time on launch day, September 22. In the past, new iPhones typically have three to six-week lead times, notes KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Both analysts believe the shorter lead times are the result of many buyers waiting to buy the iPhone X, which will open for preorders October 27 and officially go on sale November 3. (Note that projections based on preorders are tricky because actual supply levels aren’t known, and because people who preorder are typically early adopters, not mainstreamers.)
Munster estimates in a research note on Monday that the iPhone 8 (starting at $699) and iPhone 8 Plus (starting at $799) will account for between 20% and 30% of total iPhone sales over the next year. He believes the iPhone X will account for about 20% of sales.
Munster also believes Apple was better prepared for preorders of the larger iPhone 8 Plus than it was for last year’s surprisingly popular iPhone 7 Plus (the one with the dual cameras). Shipping lead times for the iPhone 8 Plus were the same as those for the smaller iPhone 8 through the weekend.
KGI’s Kuo adds that he believes demand for the new Apple Watch Series 3 is surprisingly strong, based on their current shipping lead time of three to four weeks. Kuo also believes that as much as 90 percent of the preorders are for the $399 cellular version of the new smartwatch.