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  • 11.09.16

Nate Silver blew it, but warned Trump might win even if he lost the popular vote

Devotees of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight–and the site’s many detractors–are no doubt swearing off Silver’s brand of prognostication and methodology in the wake of Donald Trump’s shocking come-from-behind victory.

But you have to hand it to Silver in one regard: He warned throughout the entire election cycle that there was a non-trivial chance Trump might win the election (via the Electoral College) even while losing the popular vote. In the end, that’s exactly what happened–though that fact, and the fact that no one else really sounded the alarm about that potential result, will likely do little to repair FiveThirtyEight’s, and Silver’s, reputation in the near term.

[Photo: Flickr user Gage Skidmore]

DT