If you looked at Hillary Clinton’s share of the popular vote—about 47.1% as of this writing—and compared it to what pollsters had predicted, you’d think they’d had a pretty good night. A back-of-the-napkin Fast Company calculation shows they expected her to get about 47.13%. Not bad, right? Um, no.
That’s because, according to that same Fast Company math, they thought Trump would come in at about 42.88%, and right now, he’s at 48.3% and on the verge of winning the presidency. That’s a huge, monumental miss that accounts for him potentially scoring victories in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida that could put him over the top. Why did it happen? It’ll take political scientists a while to figure it out. Let’s just say, though, that there are very few political professionals or pollsters congratulating themselves for their actual prognostications right now.
What's really amazing about Trump's 48-47 lead is show me one single national poll that had him at 48. Was there even one?
— Domenico Montanaro (@DomenicoNPR) November 9, 2016