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  • 11.08.16

Nate Silver stakes his reputation on FiveThirtyEight’s final election forecast

Ask many Democrats and they will probably admit that, yes, they have been feverishly checking FiveThirtyEight.com multiple times a day to see if Hillary Clinton‘s lead over Donald Trump was still safe. 

And why not? The site, run by Nate Silver, was the gold standard in the 2012 election, correctly forecasting the winner of all 50 states, and coming closer on the final presidential popular vote between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney than anyone else. On the other hand, 538 missed badly on Trump winning the Republican nomination, and a lot of people are now questioning the oracle status Silver built after 2012 and used to launch a data-science-based news site owned by ESPN.

Well, the proof is in the pudding, and because this is data, we’ll soon know just how well he did. Today’s the election, and this morning, 538 locked in its final forecast, giving Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning, and predicting the former Secretary of State would end up with 302 electoral votes (270 are required for victory) and a 3.6 percentage point margin–48.5% to 44.9%–in the popular vote. 

DT