Data firm Markit has released the first flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) report since Britain voted to leave the European Union last month. The PMI numbers are for July and paint a terrible picture of the prospects for the post-Brexit economy with Composite Output, Services Activity, and Manufacturing Output down to as much as 88-month lows. As Markit economist Chris Williamson told the Guardian:
“July saw a dramatic deterioration in the economy, with business activity slumping at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009. The downturn, whether manifesting itself in order book cancellations, a lack of new orders or the postponement or halting of projects, was most commonly attributed in one way or another to ‘Brexit’.”
The markedly lower PMI numbers in just the first month after the Brexit vote suggest the U.K. could soon be in a recession.
UK economic activity flashes RECESSION as July PMI indices plunge post-Brexit, the biggest fall on record.
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) July 22, 2016
Sterling has nose dived since the UK PMI survey 20mins ago pic.twitter.com/NF1TZVUSzD
— Joe Lynam BBC Biz (@BBC_Joe_Lynam) July 22, 2016
UK Services PMI in recession territory. https://t.co/OcnWl8l1mM
— Markus Schuller (@panthera_s) July 22, 2016
Woeful PMI points to a 50bp cut in Bank Rate to 0% in Aug. But with inflation set to soar, a 25bp cut seems likelier pic.twitter.com/HYpHgQhI9r
— Samuel Tombs (@samueltombs) July 22, 2016
UK PMI took a wallop post referendum. Lowest composite since April 2009 when economy was still reeling from crisis pic.twitter.com/b09TC4ftY1
— Marcus Wright (@MarcusEconomics) July 22, 2016
We predicted Brexit would crash the UK economy. Where are those who accused us of ‘scaremongering’ now? https://t.co/6OXYWjvsIh
— Sunny Hundal (@sunny_hundal) July 22, 2016