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  • 06.29.16

Nate Silver is giving Trump a 20% chance of becoming president

The statistician, who has a pretty impressive track record at forecasting political races and sporting events, just launched his general election forecast at his FiveThirtyEight site, giving Trump a 20 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton as of Wednesday afternoon, based on polls and other empirical evidence.

Silver compares Trump’s current odds of winning to “the same chance that the visiting team has when it trails by a run in the top of the eighth inning in a Major League Baseball game.” And he sounds a note of caution:

If you’ve been following politics or sports over the past couple of years, I hope it’s been imprinted onto your brain that those purported long shots — sometimes much longer shots than Trump — sometimes come through.

MB