It’s like those teams that peak too early in the March Madness tournament. New research says the people who signed on early to support Trump won’t likely be joined by many new supporters from other groups in the general election, if New York GOP primary voters are any guide.
0ptimus (the group that ran data analytics for the Rubio campaign) found that only two-thirds of the 14K GOP primary voters surveyed see themselves voting for Trump in the general, while 32% would defect to Hillary or some other candidate.
This research also shows that almost all of Trump’s primary supporters (95%) will stick with him in the general, but startlingly low numbers of Cruz and Kasich supporters (49% and 28%, respectively) will close ranks and vote for him in the general.
Trump is forever crowing about how he’s attracting legions of non-partisans, Independents, and Democrats to his tribe, but the numbers in New York simply don’t bear it out. So have hope. Our short national nightmare might end in Cleveland this July.