So How Did Nate Silver Do With His Oscar Predictions?

We’ve been up all night analyzing vast tracts of data (translation: Nate’s predictions and last night’s results) to bring you the stats star’s results.

So How Did Nate Silver Do With His Oscar Predictions?

You may have heard that the Oscars were handed out last night. And on Friday, Nate Silver published his Academy Award predictions, based on a simpler set of data than 2009 and 2011, the previous two years in which he had pored over acres of movie-related data in order to pre-empt the opening of the envelopes. So, how did he do?


Of the six categories that he predicted–the six big ones, let’s be honest about it, Silver got four right. He got the girls, so to speak–both Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway sailed up on stage, with varying degrees of success, to collect their statuettes. And he nailed Daniel Day-Lewis, whose august portrayal of Lincoln was, Silver felt, the surest of sure things. And he was right for Argothe real Argo, that is–winning Best Picture. So, where did he slip up?

Ang Lee’s awards shelf will now have a second Best Director Oscar for his Life of Pi–Silver thought Spielberg‘s Lincoln would win it. And Christoph Waltz, er, waltzed away with the Best Supporting Actor for his role in Django Unchained. Silver’s money was on Lincoln star Tommy Lee Jones. Still, four out of six ain’t bad. B+.

The full list is below. Did the Oscar committee dole out any surprises for you, or was it just as you thought it would be? Do tell us in the comments, please.

1. Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained.

2. Animated Short Film: Paperman.

3. Animated Feature Film: Brave.


4. Cinematography: Life of Pi

5. Visual Effects: Life of Pi

6. Costume: Anna Karenina.

7. Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables

8. Live Action Short Film: Curfew

9. Documentary (short subject): Inocente


10. Documentary: Searching For Sugar Man

11. Foreign Language Film: Amour

12. Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

13. Sound Editing (TIE): Skyfall, and Zero Dark Thirty

14. Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables.

15. Editing: Argo


16. Production Design: Lincoln

17. Score: Life of Pi

18. Song: Adele, Skyfall.

19. Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio, Argo.

20. Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

21. Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi


22. Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

23. Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

24. Picture: Argo

[Image: Flickr user ebbandflowphotography]


About the author

My writing career has taken me all round the houses over the past decade and a half--from grumpy teens and hungover rock bands in the U.K., where I was born, via celebrity interviews, health, tech and fashion in Madrid and Paris, before returning to London, where I now live. For the past five years I've been writing about technology and innovation for U.S