Nate Silver, who is to predictions what gravity is to the Road Runner (a constant ally!), has published his predictions for this year’s Oscar race. And he’s had a bit of a fiddle with the methodology this time around.
His FiveThirtyEight blog explains how he did it back in 2009 and 2011, but this time, Silver says, he’s only using data from other award ceremonies, as the rest is noise. You armchair pundits, you don’t matter. You critics, you don’t matter. Bartenders? Can it. So, if you don’t want to know the results, look away now. For the rest of us flawed mortals …
Best Picture: Argo (by a country mile).
Best Director: Steven Spielberg (just shading out Ang Lee there).
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (the pierced ears don’t faze voters).
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (nor did the wardrobe malfunction at the SAG Awards, it seems).
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (do you like what I’m doing with these parentheses?)