The Nate Silver (Linings) Playbook: Stats Star Predicts Oscars

Don’t want to know who’ll likely win gold on Sunday? Avert your eyes!

The Nate Silver (Linings) Playbook: Stats Star Predicts Oscars

Nate Silver, who is to predictions what gravity is to the Road Runner (a constant ally!), has published his predictions for this year’s Oscar race. And he’s had a bit of a fiddle with the methodology this time around.


His FiveThirtyEight blog explains how he did it back in 2009 and 2011, but this time, Silver says, he’s only using data from other award ceremonies, as the rest is noise. You armchair pundits, you don’t matter. You critics, you don’t matter. Bartenders? Can it. So, if you don’t want to know the results, look away now. For the rest of us flawed mortals …

Best Picture: Argo (by a country mile).

Best Director: Steven Spielberg (just shading out Ang Lee there).

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (the pierced ears don’t faze voters).

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (nor did the wardrobe malfunction at the SAG Awards, it seems).

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (do you like what I’m doing with these parentheses?)

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (channeling Susan Boyle. Okay, I’ll stop now.)


What do you think of Nate’s picks? In a postscript, he says that, should La Hathaway not steal away with that last award, he’ll probably retire from Academy prophecies.

[Image by Flickr user prayitno]

About the author

My writing career has taken me all round the houses over the past decade and a half--from grumpy teens and hungover rock bands in the U.K., where I was born, via celebrity interviews, health, tech and fashion in Madrid and Paris, before returning to London, where I now live. For the past five years I've been writing about technology and innovation for U.S.