An analytic report from a firm used to sizing up businesses on their way to an IPO is suggesting that Twitter will float in 2014. Greencrest Capital, which has been vocal in its support of recent tech IPOs such as Facebook and Zynga (Editor’s note: ahem…), struck a note of caution, however. Let us clash cymbals, bang drums and, in short, give praise to the beauty of hindsight.
“Using the secondary market for shares to mark enterprise value is a very difficult and opaque process, said Max Wolff of Greencrest. “It is a rumor rich and special share class soup. That said, Twitter is up since the Facebook IPO and is now valued northward of $11 billion. This makes sense as growth in users and new monetization efforts are both yielding fruit and pointing toward a good 2013 for Twitter.”
Twitter has long played its flotation cards close to its chest. But an interesting couple of findings makes us wonder whether–as we always wonder when little startups become big boys and start to talk the going-public talk–Twitter hasn’t jumped the shark. According to DigitalDaya, 75% of world leaders are talking to the masses via a Twitter account–that’s 123 leaders out of 164 countries. Top Twitter hitter is, of course, Obama, with 26.4 million followers. And then, according to Branch founder Josh Miller, teens are giving Twitter the bird. His teenage sister told him that “Nobody uses it. I know you love it, but I don’t get it.” What do you think? Is Twitter worth $11 billion? Would you buy shares in the firm? Or is the IPO going to be an initial damp squib, a la Facebook?