the economy

Macro Trends: America’s New Chapter

The stock market has rallied since March 2009 on cheap money and undervaluation; the former is unsustainable and the latter no longer the case.READ»

Discerning Trends and Fluctuations From Direction and Volatility

Question: Why did the market tank at the close Wednesday, after the release of the G.19 report, when it was already known February was a poor month for consumer credit? Between 3:00 pm and 4:00 pm Wednesday, this was the most significant news to come out?READ»

U.S. Markets: A Week of Inexplicable Events

This snapshot of the market and the economy shows that things are far from normal, or what we once considered normal. The calculus that propelled investing over the last 30 years has dissolved. The new formula is being being created and tested in real time. The stock market and investing is currently unreal - it’s devolved awhile ago into, or, if you prefer, transformed itself into a momentum investing affair in an unraveling world.READ»

The Lazarus Rally in 2010

Stocks will not repeat the performance of the last 12 months. The last 12 months was fueled on liquidity and promised future growth. The future is here but the growth is not. READ»

How to Successfully Rescue Residential Real Estate

The federal government should self-refinance the original mortgages directly with homeowners at 4% fixed for 20 or 30 years, ultimately turning these mortgages into GNMAs.READ»

5 Reasons to Consider Buying SPY Puts Tuesday

The market action since January 19th shows that the momentum from excessive liquidity is ebbing before the recovery can bloom. Now, the market is searching for corroboration to justify current levels.READ»

Bear Market Is Firmly Intact

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from 150 to 680 during the years 1940 to 1960. Even with huge tax burdens, investors wealth increased five-fold over 20 years. By contrast, we have just exited a lost decade, receiving no long-lasting benefit from a top tax rate of 35%, and we may be entering another difficult decadeREAD»

Today in the Market: Bargain Hunting or Short Covering at the Close?

The close today was as chaotic and confusing as the jobs report released before the opening bell. Unemployment went down as more jobs were lost. As always, there was a conflict between the household survey and payroll data.READ»

What Happens to the Market in the Next Leg Down?

The swift collapse of stock prices this week was not supposed to happen – if you listened to the experts. This was earnings season, with many companies beating the consensus estimates, healthcare reform was a win-win for the insurance industryREAD»

Work It: Labor Market Sees a Little Sunshine

While last week's unemployment news was, let's say, less awesome than we had all hoped, some bright spots did emerge. Among them were figures on state-by-state initial unemployment claims for late December. The picture was slightly ...READ»

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Replace Ben Bernanke with Paul Volcker

At first blush, this idea may seem radical, but these are not ordinary times. What are the benefits if President Obama figuratively walks out to the pitcher’s mound, take the ball from Bernanke, and say, “Ben, you threw one hell of a game for eight innings. We can take it from here; the economy is heating up.” Then, Obama turn towards the bullpen forms his hand into the shape of a clam, opens, and closes it twice, to signal for his major league inflation closer – Paul Volcker.READ»

Replace Ben Bernanke with Paul Volcker

At first blush, this idea may seem radical, but these are not ordinary times. What are the benefits if President Obama figuratively walks out to the pitcher’s mound, take the ball from Bernanke, and say, “Ben, you threw one hell of a game for eight innings. We can take it from here; the economy is heating up.” Then, Obama turn towards the bullpen forms his hand into the shape of a clam, opens, and closes it twice, to signal for his major league inflation closer – Paul Volcker.READ»

The Next Decade: Best of Times, Worst of Times

This economic mutation is possible and probable because, heretofore, it was near impossible to calibrate daily, or hourly, reasonably valuations, arrive at informed decisions, and implement actions, either side of a transactions, on a sustainable basis. Today, the world contains seven billion individual economies, tethered together, communicating, and constantly reformulating, digitally.READ»

Fourth Quarter Outlook: Become a gold bug, now

So, why become a gold bug, now, (GLD, GDX) you ask. The simple answer is the respite from Armageddon we purchased with poorly planned deficit spending during 2008’s financial implosion has an expiration date. Vigorish charged by the world for our initial greed and incompetent rescue will soon come due.READ»

The Downside, a Tough Economy. The Upside, Opportunity Lies Within Us!

The Building Great Teams Project. Here we are standing at the doorstep within the 2008 economy knocking hard to come inside. Only, the door remains shut with no answer. We continue to knock, and knock hoping that someone would open ...READ»