Dean, Wharton School
In the post-Enron, post-WorldCom era, much has been written on corporate governance, corporate responsibility, financial malfeasance, and greed. The perp walks of business executives have become a regular feature of the nightly news. But once the furor over the corporate cleanup has subsided and the felons have been thrown in the brig, we'll go back to our lives and the pain of the past two years will begin to fade.
However, in the wake of those scandals, we've changed: We've rediscovered the power of truth. We'll no longer be willing to be patient with people who claim that they weren't really lying but were simply shading the truth. Spinning, shading, and obfuscating have all become part of our vernacular, and not just with regard to financial statements. We experience these little lies regularly.
Truth will be the mantra of business for the next few years. We, as consumers, investors, and members of society, will demand it. The hard part will be to accept it. Did we really believe that dotcom mania made the laws of economics obsolete? Of course not. But we were willing to suspend our disbelief. The Bible teaches, "You will know the truth, and the truth will set you free." What it doesn't say is that freedom demands responsibility and the willingness to accept the consequences of the truth: to live without hype and its dazzling, if unfounded, promises. Starting in 2003, that will be our challenge -- and our hope for turning the past year's pain into true progress.
Pulitzer Prize Winner, God: a Biography
Tension between the Muslim world and the rest of the world will continue. The Bush administration, having made little effort to enlist the support of both American and other Western Muslims to build bridges, will do no more along those lines than it already has. The Muslim world, seeing no viable liberal or Western option and feeling itself under siege, will continue its conservative drift. Terrorism will not abate.
Meanwhile, the administration's environmental policies will increase tension between it and the rest of the world as environmental degradation gradually replaces terrorism as the command issue. Because the environment has a strong hold on younger voters (in poll after poll, high-school grads describe themselves as "environmentalists"), a Green candidate, probably a Green Democrat, will begin to rebuild a new, long-term base for the Democratic Party around this issue.
CEO, Just Ask a Woman
I listen to women every day. Boomer women tell me that they're nearing the breaking point. The life that they bought into as college graduates in the late 1960s and early 1970s has brought them success but often not a lot of satisfaction.
Fast-forward to today's graduates, the oldest members of generation Y. I often speak on campuses, and I hear students, both men and women, asking, "How can I have success and a life?" The generation that was raised on the Internet and MTV's Road Rules has a passion for a life well lived.
How are two such disparate generations connected? Despite their angst of "Why isn't this generation more like us?" boomers may find themselves looking in the mirror and reevaluating what they wanted to be in the first place. Maybe 2003 will be the year that boomers start learning from their kids: Count yourself successful because you're happy instead of the other way around.
As the two groups discover their shared values, imagine an intergenerational partnership that we haven't seen before -- where it's not about the destination but the journey.
Cofounder, Integral Capital Partners and Silver Lake Partners
Will 2003 be the Year of the Next Big Thing? Fat chance. The Year of WiFi? Not likely. The Year of the Next Bull Market? We can only hope. The Year of the Big Deal? Possibly -- but probably not your big deal. What's certain is that this environment isn't some blip down an otherwise unfettered march to technology fame and riches. It's all about the New Normal, and 2003 will be the first full year of it.
The New Normal demands a different kind of management. Like the European armies during World War I, tech-industry leaders are struggling to adjust to new realities. Most rose to power in the era of biz dev, Internet time, and overnight paper fortunes. Now they must figure out how to make products and services that customers will pay for in an era when investors don't care. Vision matters, but only if it can be financed and delivered in a reasonable period of time. Without the magnetic power of options, managers will have to find new -- or old-fashioned -- ways to motivate their teams.
Email
Digg
StumbleUpon
Facebook
Buzz Up!
LinkedIn
