Technorecovery?

First technology produced the boom. Then it brought the bust. And now? Will it lead us into another round of gizmo-led growth? Are there cool new things to spark our imagination (and jump-start the stock market) ? We asked five of the smartest techies, analysts, and investors around. Here's their take on the technofuture.

Bob Davis

Venture partner, Highland Capital Partners
Lexington, Massachusetts

I've always been skeptical of the concept of "the next big thing." Markets are long-term, and successful long-term markets have always been evolutionary, as opposed to revolutionary. It's dangerous to lose sight of that as we did during the Internet euphoria.

I also believe that the technology market will follow rather than lead the recovery. It won't be until late 2003 that we'll see strong growth from this segment of the economy. We've seen extensive cost cutting across most business sectors. IT was at the forefront of the cost cutting because it was at the forefront of the overspending.

As a business culture, we've invested billions of dollars in bits and bytes and gadgets and features without investing similarly in the organizational changes necessary to deploy that technology effectively. Technology exists to build a better brand or to improve customer relations -- pick your objective. But we have been implementing technology over the past few years almost without regard for the changes that it demands of our organizations. And that's where the great opportunity lies. Quit looking for the next big thing. Put the technology that's sitting on the shelves to work, and do it with a clear purpose. Empower your employees to get something done. Change the process. Make a contribution to organizational effectiveness.

Bob Davis focuses his investments for Highland Capital Partners on information technology. Davis founded the Internet company Lycos in 1995, serving as CEO until its merger with Terra in 2000. He then served as CEO of Terra Lycos until he joined Highland Capital Partners in April 2001. Davis is also the author of Speed Is Life: Street Smart Lessons From the Front Lines of Business.

Esther Dyson

Chairman, EDventure Holdings
New York, New York

Most capital spending goes into technology in one way or another. As businesses start to spend, the technology industry will benefit. One new technology that is exciting is local-area wireless, which is growing very quickly: It's in hotels and coffee shops and up and down city streets. It got its start in university towns, Silicon Valley, and downtown New York, but it will spread. Soon you'll be able to walk through the airport and have online access anywhere. (It might even relieve overcrowding in airport lounges, if we're lucky.)

Wireless will make computing more sociable. Instead of going to some corner or finding some special place to log on, you can stay where you are, with other people, while you connect. It becomes a shared activity, like watching television, rather than an individual one.

Another promising area will be identity management: managing and controlling access to personal information. For starters, it's going to be the focus of an interesting commercial market, which will be filled with companies looking to manage identities for online services. These companies will have to learn how to handle their customers' rights to control their personal data. The winners in this game will be those who understand that people want to regulate their information without being confused by the tools that help them do it.

Esther Dyson (edyson@edventure.com) is chairman of EDventure Holdings, publisher of the monthly technology-industry newsletter "Release 1.0," and sponsor of the PC Forum and HighT-ech Forum conferences. Dyson is an active investor in emerging-technology companies and writes a regular column for the New York Times syndicate.

Kazuo Hirai

President and COO, Sony Computer Entertainment America
Foster City, California

Technology doesn't drive anything in and of itself. It's what you use to enhance someone's productivity, entertainment value, or overall experience. We offer great entertainment. Entertainment is where the opportunity is right now. It may be why ours is one of the few technology sectors -- or perhaps the only one -- whose grew market last year. Our business never got into a recession or a slump. The video-game industry grew from $6.6 billion in 2000 to $9.4 billion in 2001.

Between the original PlayStation and the PlayStation 2, we offer over 1,400 titles. There's something for everyone. Our demographics are changing rapidly. Across the video-game industry as a whole, 43% of players are female, and the average player is 28 years old.