Sidebar: Roger Cass's Coming Attractions

Roger Cass is unique among futurists, because he comes up with one projection and sticks to it. Most futurists prefer to take the safe route, developing alternative futures that frame possible scenarios. "It requires incredible confidence to stick to one story," says Napier Collyns, 73, cofounder of the scenario-planning firm Global Business Network. "A single story can only be found when you look at something incredibly deeply."

Here are Cass's projections for the fifth new economy, which began in 1994 and will run until 2020.

U.S. productivity will grow annually by an average of 3.5% over the next 10 years in the context of 1% annual employment growth.

In local broadband transmission to the home, the "last-mile" issue will be resolved, increasing information use enormously and finally delivering on the promises of the past 15 years.

The United States will shift from making investments in telecommunications to making investments in fiber-optic technology.

Japan will reemerge in a big economic turnaround, driven by a new generation of political and business leadership.

Local capital markets will emerge robustly in developing countries -- and this will be accompanied by a parallel, if not prior, development of human capital.

Economic and productivity growth will be interrupted as a result of environmental degradation. Eastern European success stories founded on environmental ravaging are not likely to persist.

Sidebar: Fernand Braudel Is the Nostradamus of True Believers

Roger Cass's view of the future owes much to the historical writings of Fernand Braudel.

A conventional, mainstream economist might predict the future based on factors such as interest rates. A Braudelian takes a different approach, analyzing the long cycles and studying population growth, political change, and social trends. "You're left with a comprehensive understanding, because human nature doesn't change," says Malcolm Tulloch, Cass's colleague. Economists, including Braudel, recognize that population growth drives economic growth, which makes interest rates short-term and dubious. "America's economic growth is driven by population growth, which is expanding rapidly because of immigration," says Tulloch. "European populations are stagnating -- they are becoming gentrified. One of Japan's biggest problems is that its population is shrinking and graying. That's what's making its economic decline so difficult to repair."

To a Braudelian, the word "change" has lost any significant meaning. "It needs adjectives and qualifiers," says Tulloch. As if to keep the muck of the news off of themselves, Braudelians are constantly rereading Braudel. In particular, Tulloch recommends Braudel's trilogy, Civilization and Capitalism, 15th - 18th Century (Harper & Row, 1982). If you're serious about looking for the future, the best place to start may be with Braudel's history.