Fast Forward

But seriously. The merger of AOL and Time Warner was an epic moment in business history, the instant when new economy met old economy and plain took over. The self-dismemberment of AT&T was evidence that the old kingpins just couldn't do business the way that they had done it in the past. And Daimler-Chrysler was the event that hit us in the face with the inevitability of a global economy.

The new economy was truly defined by changes that were far more fundamental than the IPO explosion. Technology pervaded our lives as it never had before. Communications made the global seem local. Individuals gained enormous, unaccustomed power, both as workers and as consumers. For that matter, smaller and smaller organizations were able to wallop much bigger entities.

That's what the new economy is all about, folks. The stock market was a sideshow, by definition a derivative of the real thing.

Consider these statements about the future and tell us whether you consider each to be very likely, possible, or very unlikely. In five years, the American auto industry as we know it will be transformed. Automakers will sell at least half of their cars directly to consumers over the Internet. An Internet portal or software company will own a major auto manufacturer.

Very likely .......... 26%
Possible .......... 51%
Very unlikely .......... 23%
(comments)

In five years, the telecommunications industry as we know it will be transformed. Nearly all telephones will be wireless. AT&T will have disappeared, or nearly so.

Very likely .......... 29%
Possible .......... 49%
Very unlikely .......... 23%
(comments)

During the past five years, a startup company has changed the way we think about buying books, and in doing so, it has exploded all of our preconceptions about the book industry. Another startup has revolutionized the way we get recorded music, and it has probably wrecked the music business. A third startup has acquired the nation's largest media company.

We have been conditioned not just to believe in the possibility of massive change, but to expect it. Witness: 77% of poll takers thought that it was possible or very likely that the $608 billion U.S. auto industry will endure an outrageous overhaul within five years. Such a scenario would require reversing decades-old relationships with suppliers, dealers, and consumers. It would require, say, Microsoft buying GM. But AOL bought Time Warner. Amazon reversed decades-old relationships with suppliers, dealers, and consumers.

The response from poll takers regarding this issue confirms our sense of the inevitability of change. And it says something more. The companies that are pillars of the old economy will soon be remade -- or else, they will disappear. The dynamism ahead will not only transform industries, it will also destroy the line that divides the old economy from the new. The survey confirms the growing recognition that the next five years are all about convergence: big companies, fast companies; startups, standard-bearers -- one and the same.

Throughout Fast Company's five-year history, the core question has been, What does it take to lead in the new economy? The poll respondents have clearly read every issue. Their answers here mirror our own definition of what leadership is all about.

Which is to say that tech savvy is critical, but on its own, it doesn't guarantee success. Great leaders develop and enunciate coherent and compelling visions for their organizations. They look at problems in ways that others don't, and they think outside of the box to produce solutions that their competitors won't match. Since talent is their number-one asset, they're skilled motivators and communicators. And they're experts at identifying and completing deals that will leverage their organizations' strengths.

Execution? That's important, but a leader hires great people to do the execution. Luck matters too, but try running a billion-dollar company, or anything else, on luck alone. Sometimes it may be better to be lucky than to be good. But if you want to win in a period of tumultuous change, the best idea is to be great.

Fast Company and Roper Starch Worldwide designed this online opinion poll. Digital Marketing Services collected the data from a sample of 1,000 college-educated, employed people from households with yearly incomes of $75,000 or more who visited America Online's Opinion Place. Respondents were selected randomly and were interviewed between November 16 and December 4, 2000.