Consider each of these dotcom phenoms of the past five years. In another five years, will they be stunning successes, acquired by some other company, or vanished like the dinosaurs?
| Stunning Success | Acquired | Vanished | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| AOL | 86% | 13% | 1% |
| eBay | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| Napster | 12% | 56% | 32% |
| priceline | 7% | 37% | 56% |
| Yahoo! | 59% | 38% | 3% |
Consider this list of the most valuable public companies today in America. In another five years, will they be stunning successes, acquired by some other company, or vanished like the dinosaurs?
| Stunning Success | Acquired | Vanished | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T | 63% | 32% | 5% |
| Cisco Systems | 64% | 29% | 7% |
| Exxon Mobile | 59% | 37% | 4% |
| General Electric | 74% | 23% | 3% |
| Intel | 75% | 24% | 1% |
| IBM | 75% | 22% | 3% |
| Lucent Technologies | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Microsoft | 92% | 7% | 1% |
| Oracle | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Wal-Mart Stores | 83% | 14% | 3% |
In today's economy, permanence is relative at best. That great sandwich place on the corner? It's a GapKids now. Next month, Zara moves in. Here today, toast tomorrow. Impermanence rules.
In the context of chaos, it's not surprising that so many respondents think that today's dotcom stars are vulnerable. If, as so many believe, the Internet is only in its infancy, then who knows what five more years of growing pains will bring? Will Amazon.com be any more likely to make a buck in 2006 than it is today? Priceline.com is already dead meat. Napster was never built to survive in the first place. Even Yahoo!, the Net's poster child for what might be, is hardly a sure thing. (America Online, endorsed as a lasting success by 86% of respondents, apparently is a sure thing. Remember, though, that these poll takers were all AOL subscribers.)
Now take a look at the big boys. The 10 most valuable companies in America. Are they safe? Well, yes, probably. But consider: More than a quarter of respondents said that within five years, General Electric will be no more. GE! More than 40% think that Exxon Mobil, the world's biggest oil company, will be acquired or vanish. Like the dinosaurs. Exxon Mobil. Market value: $275 billion. Poof!
Get used to it: We're caught in an era of remarkable disruption. Of predictable unpredictability. The only sure things: Microsoft software still will run everything. And we'll all shop at Wal-Mart.
Money, money, money. Is that all you people can think about? Well, of course. Money talks. Money is sexy. And so, when people look back on the late 1990s, what they'll remember are the fortunes that were made and lost. The dotcom insta-millionaires. The NASDAQ boom and crash. The day-traders who fed and fed on speculative frenzy.
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