The most acute danger is that if the United States doesn't get its act together on wireless-Web standards and platforms, it will suffer a severe talent exodus. Companies that don't jump into the wireless Web will simply find themselves on the wrong side of the next digital divide. And they'll face the same talent drain that afflicts many old-economy companies today, which are watching their most talented people defect to new-economy companies.
Make no mistake: The future of telecommunications is wireless. According to a McKinsey & Co. study, if the growth rate of wireless-technology usage in Europe continues on its present course, the European mobile-phone marketplace will reach a saturation point within two or three years. This trend is mirrored (although the conversion rate is less steep) around the world, including in the United States -- where 80 million people are now cell-phone users.
Knowing that the future is wireless, the most talented and the most ambitious people will go to the new frontier to achieve fame and fortune. And that new frontier is Helsinki and Hong Kong, Singapore and Stockholm. Those cities are where the future of communications is being created. And, if the past has taught us anything, it's that people go where they think the future lies.
John Ellis (Jellis@fastcompany.com) is a writer and consultant based in New York City.
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