But Wall Street is probably right about AOL's future: It's not content that we most care about; it's the chance to create a cozy, convenient environment. One of the most important trends in consumer behavior over the past 25 years is something that people in marketing call "home is a haven." The basic idea is that no matter what kind of chaos is going on in the real world, your home offers comfort, safety, control, and (if you're lucky) something beautiful. And, therefore, it's worth spending money on.
The same rule applies to one's home in cyberspace: People need a haven from the Web that's on the Web. AOL offers a safe harbor in a storm. That's why the company's long-term future is bright.
John Ellis (jellis@fastcompany.com) is a writer and consultant based in New York City. You can, of course, visit America Online on the Web (www.aol.com).
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