Now imagine multiplying that type of information by 80,000 -- which is the number of genes that humans have. Within the next year, scientists will have sequenced the complete human genetic code. The result: a database of more than 20 million polymorphisms -- a vast record of the differences in gene spellings that make your genes different from those of other people. And that kind of knowledge changes everything.
I joke that the way I'm going to get rich is by writing "The Genome Diet Book." By understanding the genetic variations in people's metabolisms, we'll be able to know exactly how much sugar, fat, and protein each person should take in. That suggests what I see as one of the biggest growth markets of the future: specialized foods. Medicine and agriculture will converge to give people the kinds of food that their specific genetic code calls for.
J. Craig Venter (jcventer@celera.com), a pioneer in DNA sequencing, aims to sequence all 3 billion letters of human DNA by the end of 2001. Celera Genomics uses the Internet to make its genomic and biological information available to researchers, physicians, pharmaceutical companies, and individual consumers. Before joining Celera Genomics, Venter founded the Institute for Genomic Research, which developed a technique that led to the completion of the first three genomes ever sequenced.
Futurists/authors
Megatrends Ltd.
Telluride, Colorado
We live in a technologically intoxicated zone. We are softened by the comforts that technology brings, fascinated by its gadgetry, and addicted to its delivery of entertainment. Then, turning our backs to its consequences, we wonder why the future seems so unpredictable and bleak.
Too many of us grant our technology a special status. Too few us have a clear understanding of what place it should have in our lives -- or in society at large. This intoxication zone is dissatisfying, empty, and dangerous. Climbing out of that zone is impossible unless we first recognize that we're in it. Marshall McLuhan liked to say that while he didn't know who discovered water, he was sure that it wasn't a fish.
Fortunately, we are not fish. A number of artists, theologians, and scientists are acknowledging that technology, at its best, supports and improves human life -- and that, at its worst, it distorts, and destroys human life. At the end of the 20th century, children are being drafted into war at the age of seven. The Military-Industrial Complex has become a Military-Nintendo Complex, with some insidious implications for our children and for society.
We should love progress. But that love need not be unconditional. Loving progress means cherishing technology's virtues -- as well as admitting mistakes, facing up to problems, being well informed, and welcoming alternative opinions. If we truly love technology, we won't be reckless with it.
John Naisbitt and his daughter, Nana (megatrends@naisbitt.com), are the co-authors, with Douglas Philips, of "High Tech-High Touch: Technology and Our Search For Meaning" (Broadway Books, October 1999). John Naisbitt is the author of the best-selling "Megatrends" series. The original "Megatrends" (Warner Books, 1982) has sold more than 8 million copies worldwide.
Frederick Jackson Turner Professor of History, Geography, and Environmental Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Madison, Wisconsin
Yes, we live in a world of email, Web pages, and cyber-communities. But companies in the next century will need to take more responsibility for the physical aspects of their business: what they make, how they make it, where they locate.
Industrial capitalism has created a world that's more interconnected than ever before. At the same time, the connections between people are becoming less visible. We can walk into a store and buy products from all over the world. But we don't have a clue about which ecosystems were transformed, or which workers did what, to make those products. Taking responsibility for the social implications of your business isn't easy. But your customers will demand it, and governments will require it. CEOs will need to think harder about how their companies affect the world's ecosystems.
They will also have to think hard about where they locate their businesses. People in high-tech companies often want to enjoy the amenities of "wilderness." So companies tend to locate their offices near forested, mountainous terrain. That approach creates stark disparities in the way land gets valued. Suburban landscapes are valued because of the work that is done in them; cities are filled with valued cultural amenities; and we tend to value wilderness for its own sake. Implicitly devalued is the rural landscape in between: the landscape of farmerers, ranchs, and loggers.
Email
Digg
StumbleUpon
Facebook
Buzz Up!
LinkedIn
