Barring some miracle, or global trade collapse, the era of cheap basic materials does seem to be over. Perhaps we should have seen as much back in 2004, when manhole covers first started disappearing around the world. As Chinese demand drove up the price of scrap metal to record levels, "thieves almost everywhere had the same idea," writes James Kynge in China Shakes the World. "As darkness fell, they levered up the iron covers and sold them to local merchants, who cut them up and loaded them onto ships to China... . From Montreal to Gloucester to Kuala Lumpur, unsuspecting pedestrians stumbled into holes."
We cannot know precisely how the coming years will play out, but there are likely to be many holes ahead. That makes the American default in Africa and elsewhere all the more regrettable, and possibly tragic -- in the true sense of the word. Had we not traded away, quite literally, our leadership potential in Africa, we could have argued for a more transparent, more sustainable global system. We could have drawn the blueprint. In the end, we seem to have acquiesced to China's game.
As all good tropical-disease experts know, hosts and parasites have an intimate relationship. They are expected to play important roles in influencing one another's evolution. When a host develops a defense against a parasite, for instance, the parasite may counteradapt. But host-parasite coevolution can turn out any number of ways. Sometimes, it's difficult to demonstrate that the host is harmed at all. Sometimes, the host drops dead.
We buy China's junk, they buy our bonds, our real estate, even our corporations; they expand into Africa with our money, enabling them to grow and sell us more junk. It's a spiderweb, a matrix -- and how it spins out is as scary as it is unclear. But one thing is certain: We're all part of the same ugly scramble. Eh?
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Recent Comments | 17 Total
May 17, 2008 at 2:42pm by arnie lerma
Dear Mr BEhar, You have out done yourself. This is an amazingly informative article, thank you. I learned from your words. Regards Arnie Lerma
May 21, 2008 at 3:37pm by Shelley Mosley
Mr. Behar:
An incredibly informative article highlighting that while we focus on how the price of gas impacts Americans' ability to take summer vacations, others are taking the longer view and are out-strategizing us in acquiring the resources we will all require in the next 50 years. We are asleep at the switch.
June 3, 2008 at 4:53pm by James Belle
China is a much bigger player on the world stage than many think, the west better have contingency plans, otherwise competing with them will be much harder in the next 50 years.
June 6, 2008 at 12:38am by CHET WHITESIDE
THANK YOU, AFTER 27 YEARS TRAVELING THROUGHOUT AFRICA YOU HAVE PUT INTO WORDS TO WHAT I HAVE SEEN AND EXPERIENCE AND HAD NOT THE POWER TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. TODAY WHAT IS THE VALUE OF LIFE?
June 6, 2008 at 5:51pm by GEOVANI LUNA
Dear: Mr. Behar
astonishing article.
What can I say. keep up the good work.
Regards. Geovani Luna.
June 6, 2008 at 8:13pm by Afam Edozie
It is the nature of man to exploit his fellow man, whether man on man, village on village, clan on clan or nation on nation. To deny this is a triple failure, failing to understand our history, failing to understand the purpose of law, and failing to understand what goes on in every school yard in the world.
Europeans, Americans, Chinese and Indians all come to Africa with a view to what they can take out, not what they can put in. They have always done so and I don’t see a world in my lifetime where I will expect anything different.
That China is now emerging as did the US, Germany and Japan at the beginning of the last century. And Germany and Japan did again after the war, is obvious. But the fact that China has the scarcity mentality (as did Germany, Britain and Japan at the beginning of the last century – which led them to fight for resources) (and for sure in the short term all things are scarce,) does not mean that energy and food will always be too scarce to support the needs of +10 billion people.
Time and time again, man’s creativity and ingenuity has been up to the task of finding alternatives, that support the continued accession (in some fronts) of our species. And there are alternatives, it is just that they take some years to develop and bring on stream. Natural resource cycles typically last between 15 and 20 years, so six years really is just the beginning – if you stay focused on demand and supply you will be one of the few that will see the market turn, at exactly the same time that everyone else is saying that prices will continue to rise for ever and indeed even the people who are today skeptical about more gains will be in the process of getting into the market just as it truly peaks and goes after another 20 year trough (the greater fools.)
The United States and the West are no more special to Africa than any other country or group of countries that can provide markets for their goods, capital for their industry and expertise for their development. During the cold war the US understood this and took over leadership for Africa from Britain and France, after the cold war they abandoned their puppets in Somalia and elsewhere leaving behind a vacuum resulting in an explosion in conflict across much of the continent, which is only just subsiding as new power equilibriums have been reached.
Before the emergence of Asia, the United States and the West were the only game in town. But the US did not use this power in any positive way. As a result few Africans will cry at the emergence of a new exploiter.
The great mistakes of US foreign policy (if I can call them mistakes) are that the US does not to have a strategy nor to have any 'real' values that they adhere to.
So Africans neither look up to them as a moral beacon (despite the fancy talk,) nor have they built in strategic advantages that will give them an edge in the future.
As a result the US lost the Shah's Iran (where it backed autocracy over democracy; whilst extolling the virtues of democracy), is loosing a host of other countries. And will likely loose much of Africa to China.
The Chinese also have no values worthy of emulation (Ok, they are disciplined and work hard etc. but you know what I mean,) but they do have an effective strategy.
Their strategy is to
i) use loss leaders (and leverage their low cost base) to get a foot hold into a country - offering to support good projects for cheap (foreigners bearing gifts policy),
ii) Ignore national politics, you do just what you want we’re only here for business (which may seem shocking, except when you compare it to the US rhetoric (from the perspective of us natives) which is ‘be just like me’ (I see no evil policy),
iii) corrupt the locals (despite Nigeria's reputation as a den of corruption I know many people who don't take bribes, regardless the Chinese still try to bribe them and when they don't accept they try even harder, like they were programmed to do this in head office, and
iv) invade the country
I live in Nigeria and the Chinese are moving in here at an alarming rate, there are more Chinese living here than any other minority group and they are coming in at every level. Large, Medium and Small sized Chinese companies. As well as sole Chinese traders. They have factories in almost every corner of the country.
They go to the middle of no where, ask the locals for land to build a $10 million processing plant (or something) (why should anyone say no, no one else - not even our own govn - has come to do anything to provide us with jobs) and in any locality outside of the major cities even $1 million investment is a big deal. They then import hundreds of Chinese workers for every job except the most menial and go ahead to treat all their workers (Chinese and Nigerians) like slaves.
They do not transfer skills, they do not train, they do no even die (I kid you not, Chinese do not die in Nigeria), when one dies his death is kept secret, his body is shipped back to China in bulk using refrigerated containers and another Chinese comes to take his job.
The only part of their colonialisation strategy that is failing is that they are not allowed to marry local girls. But I think they have a shortage of girls of their own, so we see an increase in the number of 'secret' wives. How this one will pan out is anyone's guess. But I guess they will get shipped home and we will be left with lots of half Chinese babies.
Few policy makers in Africa understand the Chinese strategy and even fewer of them have the capability of doing anything about it. In 20 years, the Chinese will be a big minority in Africa, with significant participation in industry and economic life. I think it is in the Prince by Machiavelli that it is explained that one of the best ways to bind a country to you is to relocate a sizeable number of your loyal subjects there (as the English did in Northern Ireland.) Tensions and civil turbulence come with the territory, but exploiter seldom care.
The west has not had a coherent strategy since neo-colonialism failed in the 70s (another exploitative system that replaced colonialism which was also exploitative, which replaced slavery.) The US attempt to establish an African command is laughable and is seen in Africa as a desperate attempt to introduce a military strategy.
No doubt a charm offensive with promises of dollops of aid will eventually get them the base, and no doubt they will be able to establish a naval presence through their planned deep water port in Sao Tome. But as you can see it does not stand up to the Chinese strategy which involves feet on the ground and involvement in the community.
On Richard’s last point, the ‘development’ boat has not left, there are always opportunities for people who have land, can acquire skills and live in a stable environment, to begin the process of creating capital and becoming more productive.
Unfortunately, mainly due to geography, all the races did not develop productivity at the same speed (Negro Africans were still taking the continent from Khoi Africans in the mid fifteenth century,) and our nature is to exploit rather than help those that are weaker than us. Within nations this predatory behavior is controlled by law, but between nations, peoples and races it remains the order of the day. So any African expecting that the Chinese (Americans or any one else from the outside) are here to help would better spend their time making their own chains.
Richard and other observers may be surprised to see Africa tackle many of its political problems over the next 30 years (just as China was able to tackle its ideological problems between the 1940s and 1970s, which has led to their emergence now,) After which it is a short trip to get on the boat or if the boat has truly sailed then to make our own.
I apologize if I have rambled on too long for a comment on an article, but the Richard’s brilliantly researched article brought out many issues that I could not help but comment on. And if you really want to help Africa keep your aid dollars in your pocket and instead invest them in African business, not only will you be increasing productivity of Africans (leveraging their labour with capital) you will make a better return than you would from the S&P500. You can read about African companies that are building boats at www.smartinvestorafrica.com.
June 9, 2008 at 2:52pm by david wayne osedach
This is an eye opening article.
Does it leave any doubt that there will be devastating global wars in the near future over commodities such as oil, water, or copper, and iron?
Can or, will the US instigate them?
June 16, 2008 at 9:52am by Sowande Tichawonna
I applaud Richard Behar and Fast Company for shedding light on this global issue. If there was ever a justification to boycott the upcoming Olympics this qualifies in spades.