Success Can Make You Stupid

Is it possible high-potential workers across America perform better solely because, like movies, they have been given more attention and resources than they truly merit?

If there's a moral in this story, it's this: Question success. Success propagates backward in our minds and bestows the glow of wisdom on our every decision. The irony of self-fulfilling prophecies is that even bad ideas end up looking right in the end, because we've salvaged them with good execution. And when bad ideas get reinforced, there are consequences: The wrong movies get pushed. The wrong deals get funded. The wrong employees get advanced.

But look at the bright side: No one questions self-fulfilling prophecies (except for a couple of academic researchers--but they'll never have enough data to prove you wrong in your field). Success looks great, and we don't typically wonder whether it could have been successier.

So, yeah, you knew that guy on your team was a "hi-po." And his performance proved it! You were right! Sort of.

Studios that back filmmaking teams they've worked with before earn lower-than-expected box office--once you subtract the impact of unequal marketing effort.

1. The Underdog
   Double Jeopardy (starring Ashley Judd and Tommy Lee Jones) had weak ties to its studio and was released in late September, a relatively sleepy period. It overperformed, eventually grossing $116 million.
2. The Laggard
   Arnold Schwarzenegger's paean to holiday greed Jingle All the Way had everything going for it--well-connected principals, favorable marketing, and a prime Thanksgiving-weekend release. It dramatically underperformed, grossing just $60 million.
3. The Secret Bomb
   Scary Movie 2 looks like a hit with a $71 million gross. But when you factor in its heavy ties (it is a sequel), promotion, and July release on 3,220 screens, it slightly underperformed.

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Chip Heath and Dan Heath are the best-selling authors of Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die. Is your organization or industry plagued by "conventional wisdom" that may be wrong? Email us at heaths@fastcompany.com about your favorite bad idea--and why you think it sticks.