Masters of the (Information) Universe

The Mapper

Peter D. Moore, Managing Partner, Inferential Focus

Peter Moore is proof of Thomas Edison's observation that genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. Moore slashes through 15 to 20 publications a day, mastering all that content by drawing "mind maps" of his significant findings. Major corporations pay him a lot of money for the results.

Moore runs Inferential Focus in New York City. He and his three partners read 300 to 350 publications a month and meet for two full days every two weeks to hash out conflicting indicators and distill emerging trends. They report their findings to 35 institutional investors and 15 corporations, from GE Capital to IBM to Philip Morris.

Moore's group has quite a track record. It predicted the 1990-91 recession 18 months ahead of economists at the Federal Reserve, and verified the wisdom of a "value-priced" menu for PepsiCo, which led to Taco Bell's meteoric rise. "Mind Mapping" at Work A mind map led Moore to discover the changing personal priorities that were driving shifts in American consumer spending in 1993 (see illustration above).

Moore began to jot down anomalous events unearthed in his group's wide reading: country radio stations were growing faster than any other broadcast segment, divorces were down, Calvin Klein was up, telecommuting was the new ideal. The entries around the edge of the page seemed random, but as more were added they started to naturally connect.

For the first time, Americans spent a greater percentage of their disposable income on home furnishings instead of clothing, which made Home Depot one of the nation's fastest growing retailers. And banks reported a migration from adjustable to fixed mortgages. The message: Americans were refocusing on their homes.

The connections began to suggest the shape of a tree. Groups of related events formed tree limbs that showed the biggest emerging social and economic trends. These met at the trunk, where Moore listed the common grounding elements, such as financial stability, family values, and simplicity.

The grounding points explained new shifts in American consumer spending, and had great implications for different business segments. Moore told Marshall's, the department store chain, to reduce its focus on apparel and expand home furnishings and gourmet food lines. He told Metropolitan Life to provide special services to help simplify decision making for customers facing major changes in employment, health care, and retirement.

At first, the companies balked. But Moore showed each of them a mind map and a few key pieces of data for reinforcement. He then highlighted budding changes in the companies' own mix of sales, proving that consumers were heading in the directions he predicted. Both companies eventually accepted his advice and profited handsomely. "Mind mapping is a way to store anomalous events," says Moore, "and see if a pattern is taking shape over time."

Take Away:

Six people can read a lot more than one. So try adapting Moore's study-group technique.

Divide up who'll tackle various publications. Then meet for a long lunch every two weeks to talk about what you see and help each other put the big picture together. Moore recommends that you choose people who don't see eye to eye. "The greatest insights," he says, "will probably lie where you most disagree."

Coordinates: Peter D. Moore, PDMoore1@aol.com

The Filterer

Rishad Tobaccowala, president, Giant Step, an independent operating unit of Leo Burnett

"Learning how to think," says Rishad Tobaccowala, "is more important than what you know." Tobaccowala uses "filters" to guide his thinking and to test whether new information is important.

Most often he applies filters that focus on three areas: People -- does the information make sense with what I know about people?; Economics -- does it comply with the rules of economics?; Flexibility -- does it apply to changing circumstances?

If these screens sound simple, that's the point. To focus on what really matters, says Tobaccowala, you must first realize that "two or three key facts can explain much of the world. If you tell me the topography, religion, and age of a country, I can tell you a lot about what goes on there."

By honing these screens, Tobaccowala took on the tough jobs at Leo Burnett. He created an innovative direct-marketing campaign that put Heinz Pet Products on the map. He counseled Union Carbide on marketing Glad plastic products. More recently, he orchestrated the first nightly electronic forum on America Online to be sponsored by a corporation -- Oldsmobile, a Leo Burnett client. It was a smashing success, and touched off a wave of online advertising that's still rising today.