Picking Up the Pieces

I just returned from what I've been describing to friends as a "recession-busting family vacation" in Florida - one we had booked long before we realized we would be struck by a "long and protracted recession."  And while I spent no shortage of my vacation calculating what our host resort received for each minute of sleep per person for my family of 6, I also found plenty of time to walk the beach...an activity my mother always swore helped one gain clarity of thought.

 As I walked the beautiful beaches of Longboat Key, the following came to me:

1. Holy Crap!:  If a credible psychic had foretold of the severity of this recession and its impact on the leadership development industry, I might have closed up shop, moved to the wilderness and given a run at living off the fat of the land.  This has been a dicey stretch indeed, but we are stronger and wiser for having lived through it.  We're all operating more leanly and more efficiently than we ever imagined possible, and have learned more innovative ways to lead and manage.
2. Is that the Light at the End of the Tunnel (or just that of another train that's going to collide with us when we get there)?:  According to our new president, there are "glimmers of hope" in the latest economic news coming in.  While this has caused Wall Street to rally, there are still plenty of very smart bears out there saying this is a "dead cat bounce" (of all the distasteful Wall Street metaphors out there, this one might take the cake).  We're still recommending our clients move forward, but suggest they do so at normal speed instead of racing toward the light.  Look, we just want to get to the other side of the tunnel in one piece.  If that is another train, we want time to recognize it in sufficient time to head in reverse!
3. Look for Discarded Pieces of Value and Pick them Up When You Can: Some things are certain. 

• Many very talented people have lost their jobs in the past 15 months. 
• Competitive landscapes in virtually all industries have been radically altered, as many companies have either gone away entirely or been irreparably crippled by this recession. 
• Many companies have shaved their headcount down to skeletal levels, and when things pick up they will need to hire more very quickly in order to meet growing demand.  The steeper the recovery, the more desperate the need for talent re-acquisition.
• The labor shortage crisis that demographers were fretting about before the recession (the one that was set to begin in 2011 as the first wave of Baby Boomers turns 65) has been postponed and is rescheduled for sometime after retirement funds return to non-critical levels...BUT IT IS COMING! 
• And the deep, painful, expansive job cuts that occurred during this recession will make the race for talent all the more frantic. 
• Companies ill-prepared for the recovery and accompanying labor shortage are likely to miss big growth opportunities.

Yes, all this clarity came to me while I walked the beach.  Along the way, of course, I also stepped on some broken shells and cut the bottom of my feet, so that put a slight damper on things.  And then, when I returned to our blanket my wife asked where I had been and why I was gone so long.  When I told her I was just trying to achieve a moment of clarity in these turbulent economic times, she said, "Great.  Now I need you to achieve a moment of fatherhood and tend to your four children while I go to the spa."   Ahhh, I love family vacations.