Electric Car True Costs Report 2010

New Research forecasts 14 million electric or hybrid cars likely sold in 2020 in China, Japan, the United States, and Western Europe.  SustainableVirtualBiZ.com projects that some 1.5 million will be fully electric, 1.5 million will be range extenders, and 11 million make up a mix of hybrids. The market for electric-car batteries in those regions will reach $25 billion by 2020.  

Using the example of a typical supplier of lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) batteries— a primary technology for automotive applications. The analysis calculates by 2020, the price that OEMs pay for NCA batteries will decrease by 65%, from current levels of $990–$1,220 per kWh to $360–$440 per kWh. Results in costs for a 15-kWh NCA range-extender pack to fall from around $16,000 to about $6,000. The price to consumers will similarly fall, from $1,400–$1,800 per kWh to $570–$700 per kWh—or $8,000–$10,000 for the same pack. see article A Long Look at Lithium: Chile's SQM Poised for Growth

Beyond costs, several key challenges face the electric-car battery market. For example, energy storage capacity, charging times potentially 5-6 hours and infrastructure needs. Unless there is a major breakthrough, electric vehicle batteries are limited in the driving range of fully electric vehicles to some 250–300 kilometers (about 160–190 miles) between charges. As a result, fully electric vehicles as convenient as ICE-based cars—meaning that they can travel 500 kilometers (312 miles) on a single charge and can recharge in a matter of minutes—are unlikely to be available for the mass market by 2020.

Top Battery Technologies 
China Bak Battery (CBAK), Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT), A123 Systems (AONE), China Sun Group (CSGH.OB), China Digital Communication Group (CMTP.OB),  Ener1 Inc. (HEV) , GM's VOLT, CODA and THINK GLOBAL electric vehicles among others. see article EV Market: Ener1 Inc. Reaches Deal for 30% of THINK

Further market research by the University of California shows in total the rotation of batteries necessary for the lifecycle of electric cars will add $14,400 to the price of a car the study states. The UCAL study compares the cost of each vehicle category estimated for the year 2020 including;

Diesel cars will carry $1,700 to the price of a car. Cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells, meanwhile, will have an additional cost of $5,300.

Regular gas cars, meanwhile, will cost about the same as they do today. A car that costs $19,600 today will cost $21,600 in 2035.
 
Almost everyone agrees that electric drive trains are the future. However, in view of the need for a pervasive infrastructure for charging or swapping batteries, the adoption of fully electric vehicles in 2020 may be limited to specific applications, such as commercial fleets, commuter cars, and cars that are confined to a prescribed range of use.

Perhaps, more immediate focus should be put on diesel, and biodiesel vehicles that cut carbon emissions by 25% also getting about 40-plus miles per gallon use existing fuel infrastructures already widely in place across Europe, United States, South America and Africa. 
 

About Author

Mr. Rickman is a respected analyst, innovative expert in business development and market research services with over 30-years experience, published worldwide. He is also the author of several books including Eight Billion People.  Mr. Rickman holds advanced business and technical degrees from Boston University. For more information visit : http://www.sustainablevirtualbiz.com  or  call (503) 621-4953.