When social media experts talk about Twitter and its future, there is usually a time frame attached to qualify their statements. "It's big and growing fast, but should lever out in 12-18 months before fading or becoming obsolete."
For many in the industry, timeframe qualifiers are normal and expected. The Internet is fickle. Hot today, gone tomorrow is both common and expected because meteoric rises to the top are almost guaranteed to deflate. Most popular websites eventually "jump the shark" and become punch lines describing yesterday's fads.
Keep it Simple, Stupid
Twitter is the exception. Unlike Second Life, AOL, and most recently MySpace, Twitter is simple and appears to be willing to stay simple indefinitely. They are focused on allowing the users to create the content, spread the word, and build the communities within and outside of the site. They are trying to improve on what they already have rather than add more functionality.
One of the biggest separators between Twitter and other sites is that that they are focused on conversation and engagement. As soon as you add something to the site that brings the focus away from engagement, you add a distraction to the conversations that have built Twitter into what it is today. So far, Twitter has avoided the "expert-advice" from last year when many were asking for more features. They've kept it simple and they've grown as a result.
"Real-Time Web" - The Buzzword Leading Us Into 2010
With the "Real-Time Web" being the buzzword that has plotted the course for companies small and huge, Twitter is positioned as the central hub for this trend. They are improving their search feature and have recently highlighted it on their homepage for those who are new or not logged in.
While Google would never admit it, they are both excited and terrified by the prospects of Twitter becoming a force in the search market. The excitement comes in the form of fulfillment of one of their ultimate goals: to present the web as it happens. To Google, the web is the world in a box. If they can integrate with (or buy) Twitter in the near future, the sheer mass of data flowing through it can help to enhance their usability immensely.
The fear comes from the outside chance that Twitter will be able to figure it all out on their own and become an actual competitor to search engines. Today, it would be impossible to imagine using Twitter as a search engine because it is raw, unfiltered bursts of words and links that offer little value to someone searching for a "Los Angeles Honda Dealer".
Soon, that may not be as far-fetched as it seems.
The data is there. The possibilities are nearly endless when it comes finding the right answer, the right website, or the right piece of media to answer any question that someone would want answered through a search engine. The problem is in the filtering, ranking, and distributing this data in real-time without being a victim to the loopholes that spammers and SEO firms would exploit.
Still, it isn't impossible. The race is on to make this a possibility. Google is excited because they are the odds-on favorite to put the technology together. Twitter is trying as well, but will likely defer as soon as someone else masters it.
The Real-Time Web will be a reality within 18 months.
Sticking to the Conversation
It's hard to get banned on Twitter. You really have to be a major spammer to be able to pull it off. Some see this as a flaw for Twitter, but in reality the open-nature of the platform is what will eventually lead to its greatest strength.
What's the least expensive way to develop a new technology? Let someone else do it. Just as Twitter is aware that they will likely need to integrate in some way with a search algorithm powered by Google or someone else, they are also savvy enough to know that by allowing developers to play with the API and create amazing tools, they will save money in the long run by eventually buying the best of the best.
Sites and applications like Tweetdeck, Tweetmeme, and Tweetafile have enjoyed tremendous success on the back of the Twitter API. While all offer ways of "gaming" Twitter, they are also developing products and services that could eventually become a part of Twitter in the future without damaging the simplicity of the platform.
As long as Twitter sticks to the conversation and allows others to run wild with their API, they'll be positioned to continue to grow both in users and usefulness without having to invest in the research, development, implementation and testing. They have allowed the creativity factor to flow freely. Others who have done this, namely Facebook and Apple (through iPhone apps) have enjoyed success as a result. Twitter could eventually see better success.
Twitter, 2011
Here's a not-so-bold prediction. Other than enhancements to search and cosmetic changes, Twitter will function just as it does today. The only real difference is the size. By 2011, Twitter should achieve their goal of having over 1 billion users worldwide. At that point, they may end up jumping the shark.
With 1 billion users, they could jump an ocean of sharks and still come out on top.
Related Stories: | Topics:Innovation, Technology, twitter, real-time web, search, microblogging, social networks, social media, Twitter Inc., Search Software, Computer Technology, Science and Technology, Technology |
Email
Digg
StumbleUpon
Facebook
Buzz Up!
LinkedIn
Recent Comments | 14 Total
July 31, 2009 at 10:05am by Mark Leevan
Conversation? on Twitter? unless you consider the Chicago Board of Trade trading floor conversation. It's a bunch of people yelling and occasionally getting a connection.
Getting banned is easy. Try setting up a Fake_YourNameHere account and see how long it takes for the real YourNameHere to get you banned.
Twitter should be sold now while MSM like you are hyping it. Here are my reasons:
http://www.examiner.com/x-11216-Twitter-Examiner~y2009m7d27-Sell-Twitter...
July 31, 2009 at 10:39am by Blake Iba
Are there any reliable metrics on who is actually using Twitter and how often? Most of my professional friends (ages 27 - 55) have signed up for Twitter account, but only check it twice a month (if at all). I have a gut feeling this Twitter “revolution” is still being led by teenagers and college students. And as we have all seen with MySpace, there is a definite shelf life for apps that are driven by this demographic. For example, Facebook’s growth and continued success is based primarily on it being embraced by an older user base. I don't know many moms who Twitter, but I know a ton that update their status on Facebook. Getting a billion users to sign up for Twitter by 2011 will not be a determining factor for success; it is if those billion people actually use it regularly. Right now I don't see that happening. Twitter may have not "jumped the shark," but they are not exactly taking down the ramp just yet.
July 31, 2009 at 10:39am by Blake Iba
Are there any reliable metrics on who is actually using Twitter and how often? Most of my professional friends (ages 27 - 55) have signed up for Twitter account, but only check it twice a month (if at all). I have a gut feeling this Twitter “revolution” is still being led by teenagers and college students. And as we have all seen with MySpace, there is a definite shelf life for apps that are driven by this demographic. For example, Facebook’s growth and continued success is based primarily on it being embraced by an older user base. I don't know many moms who Twitter, but I know a ton that update their status on Facebook. Getting a billion users to sign up for Twitter by 2011 will not be a determining factor for success; it is if those billion people actually use it regularly. Right now I don't see that happening. Twitter may have not "jumped the shark," but they are not exactly taking down the ramp just yet.
July 31, 2009 at 12:47pm by Freddy Nager
Until Twitter actually generates positive cashflow or declares itself a non-profit service, I am not sold on its long term viability. It already has a dropout rate of 60%, and 90% of tweets come from 10% of users (and that includes the horde of spammers that infests the site).
BTW, AOL wasn't at all complicated to use. AOL's simplicity is what got many newbies (including my elderly aunt) to start using the Internet. Online success is not about simplicity; it's about value. And right now, most people beyond MLM zombies are not finding Twitter of value.
July 31, 2009 at 1:09pm by Jeana Horne
Twitter has it's merits for those tracking specific industry leaders and researchers. However, I agree with some of the other responders, this group of tweeters is really small. As for teenagers/youngsters, most of my young, teenage cousins LIVE on and prefer to use MySpace.
July 31, 2009 at 1:18pm by Dave Lieber
You wrote, "I have a gut feeling this Twitter “revolution” is still being led by teenagers and college students."
Here's something that was posted yesterday that possibly refutes that:
From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/join-my-im-bitter-about-twitter-club-20...
Now, [USC Professor Jon] Taplin says his students haven't embraced Twitter because they aren't convinced it has a lasting place in their lives.
"My students don't care about Twitter at all," Taplin said. "It's a time-waster for them. What they're using is Facebook -- that's it."
If the USC students' inclinations prove to be a leading indicator, it's not good news for Twitter.
"There isn't a single student in my large lecture hall who doesn't use Facebook," Taplin said. "They've got the market sewn up in terms of social media. The kids tell me they like the clean interface."
The USC media and communications student body isn't easily swayed by fads.
"They take a somewhat cynical view of user-generated content," Taplin said. "Most of them think it doesn't pass the 'who cares?' test. It's fun for a minute, but they don't think it's going to substitute for going to the movies or watching a decent TV drama."
July 31, 2009 at 1:18pm by Dave Lieber
You wrote, "I have a gut feeling this Twitter “revolution” is still being led by teenagers and college students."
Here's something that was posted yesterday that possibly refutes that:
From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/join-my-im-bitter-about-twitter-club-20...
Now, [USC Professor Jon] Taplin says his students haven't embraced Twitter because they aren't convinced it has a lasting place in their lives.
"My students don't care about Twitter at all," Taplin said. "It's a time-waster for them. What they're using is Facebook -- that's it."
If the USC students' inclinations prove to be a leading indicator, it's not good news for Twitter.
"There isn't a single student in my large lecture hall who doesn't use Facebook," Taplin said. "They've got the market sewn up in terms of social media. The kids tell me they like the clean interface."
The USC media and communications student body isn't easily swayed by fads.
"They take a somewhat cynical view of user-generated content," Taplin said. "Most of them think it doesn't pass the 'who cares?' test. It's fun for a minute, but they don't think it's going to substitute for going to the movies or watching a decent TV drama."
July 31, 2009 at 1:39pm by Blake Iba
I actually think Mr. Nager did a better job of stating my point. Maybe it is not that it is a youth oriented app, but that there is a large dropout rate and the majority of tweets come from a small percentage of users. Bottom line, I run in a fairly technology-literate circle and none of my friends use Twitter with any regularity. I agree that it doesn't seem to add that much value at the moment that can't be received from other social media outlets.
July 31, 2009 at 1:57pm by Michael Jameiosn
I couldn't disagree more. I think it definitely already has, I don't get how you can say it hasn't.
- Antique Furniture
July 31, 2009 at 2:33pm by JD Rucker
A lot of the negative sentiment towards Twitter can be summed up in a comment posted elsewhere regarding this article:
"I think half the people who say it's going to end soon are the people who joined recently. It's the same thing that happens in journalism when one paper finds itself late to a trend, so that paper tries to get ahead of the curve by declaring the death of said trend."
July 31, 2009 at 2:57pm by Freddy Nager
@JD Rucker: If a product or trend isn't palatable to newcomers, it's doomed. You can't survive with early adopters alone.
Note: I reviewed Twitter back in January (http://coolrulespronto.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/twitter/). As a marketer, I still use it because I need to be familiar with all forms of media. However, I think Twitter is grossly overrated. I don't wish it failure; I want it to get better.
August 1, 2009 at 9:41am by George Bigger
Twitter has "flown the coop" - until it can merge users into conversations that offer collaboration on purpose (convergence of insight toward consensus) and then coordinate those thought leaders and champions through the innovation they can create for mutual benefit by that global cooperation http://unettednations.wordpress.com/2009/07/02/twitter-flown-the-coop/
August 3, 2009 at 1:08am by Suzanne Lainson
Every communication tool on the Internet gets replaced or at least upstaged by something new. Twitter will be no exception. I've been online since 1993. I've seen BBSs, usenet, mailing lists, online communities like iVillage, MySpace, Facebook, etc. The early adopters seem ready to try out anything new. Then whatever is in vogue becomes a mass medium, complete with spammers, and the early adopters move on to something else.
Most of the people I know who use Twitter are either involved in marketing or media. It's been handy for professional networking for me, but my friends and family who don't need access to these networks don't have the time to bother with it. They aren't going to stop what they are doing to check Twitter. If they want info, they will do a Google search. If they want to connect with friends, they will either contact them directly or use Facebook to share photos, etc. If they want to follow along with certain celebrities, sure, Twitter is handy for that. But no one I know has said that would be their reason for using it.
August 3, 2009 at 4:45pm by Wolfgang Peters
Twitter, 2011 - I don't think so that Twitter would have 1 billion users in 2011. It could be 1 billion accounts, but 950,000,000 may be spam accounts. Twitter starts fighting a little big against spam, but maybe some day in near future another project as well.