Whipping up a last-minute Blog Jam contribution, I quickly note the guidelines: my post must "relate to Fast Company's core themes of innovation, leadership, change, and business."

Fair enough. I normally blog about a wide variety work-related issues. My original focus on employment law has grown to include watching signs and predictions of change in the workplace, workforce, and nature and conditions of work -- trend-watching closely related to the three FC themes of innovation, change, and business.

And the fourth FC theme -- leadership? That's what happens when we chart a course that accommodates -- and capitalizes on -- the work trends, whether for a new or existing business, employees we manage, or our own careers.

As always, the nature and direction of change is terribly hard to grasp. Like economic indicators, work trends are often contradictory and confusing. So, to loosely quote Donald Rumsfeld, what are the "known knowns," and what are the "known unknowns" about major cross-industry trends in work-related change and innovation, and their impact on business?

Demography as destiny?

Some "known knowns" are demographic facts, such as:

The workplace makeup has changed dramatically from just a decade ago. In 1996 there were 64 million U.S. workers between the ages of 30 and 39 and only 43 million ages 40 to 59. Now the situation has reversed. As of June 2006 there were only 40 million ages 30 to 39 and 69 million workers 40 to 59, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

And the near future? One source, also citing the BLS, predicts: "by the year 2012 nearly 20 percent of the U.S. workforce will be 55 or older -- up from 13 percent in 2000." But that prediction depends on a variety of factors, including a couple of "known unknowns": retirement and immigration rates.

On the retirement unknown, consider this:

In today's leaner companies, executive jobs are fewer, and boomers who have hung on to them are in no hurry to let go. When Korn/Ferry surveyed 2,000 senior-level managers at global companies recently, they found that 44% said they plan to keep working past 64.

Companies may want the Boomer workers to stay, because of their skills and out of fear of the dearth of Gen-X employees ready to step into their shoes. But they may be creating future problems by discouraging ambitious younger employees -- who find their advancement stymied by older workers' continued presence (the "gray ceiling" that keeps them "stuck in middle management hell").

Another known: at the same time as some Boomers hang in there in plum positions, with no end in sight, others struggle to get back on their feet. "Those tossed out the door in the latest recession are having a tough time getting back in" ("50 and Fired"). Consider this:

In a recent New Yorker cartoon, a financial planner is talking to an old man. "Have you given much thought to what kind of job you want after you retire?" the planner asks the old man.

Yes, work -- for many Americans -- is the new retirement plan. Americans may need or want to work longer. But do employers want older employees? The answer, unfortunately, is a tad murky.

Some say age discrimination lingers and many older workers will have a tough time getting hired; others talk about how much older workers are -- and will be -- in demand. Who's right? They both are: it depends on the employee, industry, and even individual company.

Doing it your way

Another big known trend is getting off the corporate ladder, voluntarily or otherwise -- or not even getting on it in the first place -- and starting a business. How big this trend will be in the future is an unknown, though I'd guess it will continue to grow and spawn exciting new ideas and businesses. There is evidence that laid-off employees are launching new businesses faster now than just a few years ago.

For some frustrated Gen-X-ers, "the fastest way out from under the 'Gray Ceiling' [is] to ditch the corporate ladder entirely." Perhaps the easiest thing for them is finding talented young hires also getting off (or not on) the corporate ladder.

Meanwhile, "for the past 10 years, adults ages 55 to 64 have been the group most likely to start a new business." "And now that baby boomers are reaching retirement age, the trend is only going to grow."

And while perhaps not at the same level of entrepreneurship, "many people have carved careers out of contingent and alternative work arrangements," as "the freedom of consulting lures ever more workers," who are "leaving the corporate roost behind."

Technology: workers' friend and/or enemy?

Another known macro-trend: the dramatic impact of communications technology on work and working -- impact ranging from "offshoring" and "outsourcing" of work; to a conspiracy of the cell phone, wireless, handhelds, and email to create the 24-7 workday and "working vacation"; to increasing teleworking.

A "known unknown": to what extent will "offshoring" and "outsourcing" continue growing, and to what extent will it slow as it fails to live up to its promise and/or generates domestic backlash? (If the economy is slowing during the upcoming presidential election cycle, I'd predict a new wave of Democratic Party blaming it all on "the exporting of American jobs.")

Another related unknown: to what extent are employees ready -- and able -- to take back their personal lives from the work intrusions facilitated by technology, and to what extent is the technology viewed positively, as enabling mobility and flexibility?

There is some evidence that "the difficulty of maintaining a work-life balance may be affecting the participation rates of women in the workforce." "The stalling female participation rate could have a profound impact on the economy." Is this related at all to the 24-7 workplace brought on by technology? Will these women join the entreprenurial ranks (as "minipreneurs" or otherwise)? Become part of "onshore offshoring" as home-based workers (using the same communications technology that drove them home, of course)?

Is work an activity or a place?

Finally, a big unknown: how quickly will fuel costs, utility and real estate savings from smaller offices enabled by telework, improved technology, traffic jams, and other factors lead to dramatic increases in telework? The Telework Consortium is trying to push this needed development along, with the timely slogan, "work is what you do, not where you go" (see the Consortium's blog).

Think it's not already happening? Check out this community being created for teleworkers, this couple that works out of an RV, this consulting firm that hit the $20M mark without a regular office, and this article saying that "Silicon Valley tech companies – many fed up with spiralling rents and costs - have finally seen the light on flexible working and are taking the [telework] idea to its logical extreme."

Did I ramble? Perhaps. But I hope to have shown some of the main forces shaping rapid change in the way we work, who we work with, how we work, and where we work. My prediction for the workworld of 2020? Ask me in 2018! Too much is in play now to know much except that it will be very different from today.