I think it will make Apple setup and pull out the big guns, because that is they way technology works. If one person is doing it another wants to do it better, so Bill the battle has just begun. I think Apple will win the war.

User experience.

User experience.

User experience.

It's like that mantra about the three most important things in real estate (location, location, location). The most important thing that MSFT needs to focus on is user experience. Period.

iPod has been successful, in spite of a brand premium, because of user experience.

When apple os takes over windows this holiday then it will be real time to celebrate!

Still don't get it. I swear that Apple has resorted to some kind of voodoo lemming spell to cloud the minds of people. Their products are incrementally good... they can be beaten by anyone with a solid offering.

The advice to Mr. Gates is that a predator seeks to break up the herd...then attack the vulnerable smaller groups. Wifi is a great user experience advantage. Pick on those customers who are sick of docking. Create advertisements that show a plastic white patent leather clad doofy guy who can't walk two feet without his cord yanking him off his feet... and then show a hip, free-wheeling dancer with animated shadow dancing circles around him.

As to taking over OS...have you forgotten your medication again?

D

Zune will fail like every other wannabe iPod killers...

Zune will most likely get 20% of the market max but not the majority. It needs to focus on video and if I were MS I would give away free music videos with purchased songs (focusing on a video core) since the player has a bigger screen.

I don't think Dave understands that save Apple, no one has created a solid offering. I agree with Rayne that it's the user experience, but he needs to explain that. Here is what Zune needs, to find customer evangelists, most of which it doesn't have.

-Elegant integration with a commonly used music player (Windows Media or Winamp) and not another proprietary syncer.

-Elegant user interface that is intuitive to an intelligent novice with a minimum of gratuitous button pushing.

-Support for "Plays for Sure", both for legitimacy of message, and instant access to quality music stores.

-No DRM or otherwise proprietary wrapping media files unless that media has been purchased online.

-Support for a lot of media types. It should just transfer and play a large proportion of my current media without idiotic conversions.

-Device should connect and be usable just like an external hard drive. If I dump a supported, non-DRM media type from my computer to the device, the media should just play.

-Immediately start developing a store offering a similar breadth of media to iTunes. Even if a store is not frequently used by customers, it's an insurance policy and oohhh factor to the customers that drives sales.

-And to one up Apple, make syncing and charging at home contactless using Wi-Fi and technology like electric toothbrushes use. On the road you could still use USB for charging. A super simple Wi-Fi portlet could be offered for wireless connection to home and car stereo systems.

Notice Apple has an analogue for about 6.5 of the first 7 of these, and I can't think of another player that comes close.

The big difference is that when Apple announces a product, it ships. When Microsoft announces a product, it is for some future, unknown, ship date. When was the last time Microsoft shipped a product on the date that was first announced. A Zune promised for Christmas, means a Zune shipped by Easter... maybe.

Joel, I think you're on the money here except for one thing...it's all mainstream.

The only addition I have is that Microsoft should buddy-up to some developers who can crack some codes so that iPod owners can use Zune. Much as cell phone companies offer lower-level free devices for subscriptions and then upsell.

Ahhh, and of course--a separate P&L for Zune. They'll need to be nimble...not exactly Microsoft's core strength.

Here's another idea that may help...how about Microsoft and Newscorp get together on a deal to allow Zune subscribers to download content from MySpace?

Bill & the Zune gang, big mistake. It makes me want to go and buy another iPod.