
August 8, 2008
The stock market saw its biggest gain in four months on August 5 thanks to falling commodity prices, especially oil. However, commodities have fallen because of a global slowdown in economic growth, which is only going to get worse.
Peter Coy of BusinessWeek reports: “Traders are bailing out of commodities in part because of evidence of weakening demand and in part because they predict demand will soften in the months ahead as the economic slump and credit crunch that began in the U.S. a year ago spread abroad.”
Comments | 10 Total
August 8, 2008 at 11:13am by Rip Empson
According to MasterCard Advisors, the overall volume of gasoline purchased has risen significantly as gas prices have dropped. For those hoping to see gasoline consumption in the U.S. remain low or hit "demand destruction" like it did for utilities companies in the 70s--this isn't likely to happen. However, China's demand for commodities in an effort to finish ventures before the Olympics likely spurred commodities to stay at high elevations. But China is now done with most of its "building" for the Olympics and many of their factories have been shut down. When the factories re-open, China can go back to consuming its own resources (and polluting) instead of using the global market. Likely, commodity prices on the global market will find a reasonable medium in the coming months, after this drop. But it's hard to argue with the fact that lower gas prices are bad for the global economy, as they encourage demand and slow our transition to alternative sources of energy.
August 8, 2008 at 1:57pm by Megan DaGata
I can't agree or disagree on this point, because the lower the cost of fuel, the lower the cost of trade. Much of the cost of moving merchandise from the manufacturer to the store shelves is wrapped up in paying enormous fuel bills. The cost of moving a shipment from Hong Kong to LA is around $1200 if you add a 25% fuel surcharge in there you are talking about another $400. Two years ago the cost to ship from Hong Kong to LA was about $550 and the fuel surcharge was only 15%. There is a direct correlation between the cost of shipping and the cost of fuel.
Having a credit based economy is really what is hurting the economy. So many people have more than they can pay for and when they have a financial crisis they can not cover the bill. We all want to have the things depicted in the ads, but when are people going to realize that actually paying cash for everything will keep them from becoming a victim of the economic downturn?
August 8, 2008 at 10:40pm by Donovan Wadholm
Lower US Dollar values are bad for the global economy.
August 9, 2008 at 9:18am by John Zach
Everybody is talking about a "slow-down" or even a recession in the global economy - right??
In relative terms, if the current economy is slowing down, then, one can argue that the global economy was at a certain peak before it stated slowing down.
For something like "global economy", it can not be reach it's peaks overnight (or in relative terms 12 to 18 months). Global Economy reaches it's peak due various macro & micro economic factors over a prolonged period of time.
Now having made the above assumptions, if I look at the price of gasoline two years ago, it was under $60 a barrel; which is really low when compared to current levels. Further over two years ago, nobody in their right mind would have stated that the global economy was slowing down (in other words the economy was growing).
Based on all of the above assumptions (not different from the facts), it is very hard for me to agree with your idea.
August 9, 2008 at 2:02pm by Daniel Veintimilla
If we consider transitioning into alternative fuels, the only way to achieve it (slowly) in the global market would be having higher gas prices. Now, I agree with the complexities of the global economy, and how it's unpredictable. But it is time to stop thinking so much about our wallets, and start working towards a greener economy. Thus, I agree with your big idea. It might hurt a lot of people, including me, but it is best for our grandchildren, and the future of mankind.
August 9, 2008 at 3:53pm by Vernon Martin
It may be hard to understand and even harder to live with, but the most effective way to reduce emissions is to reduce gas use. I watched as one of the candidates for presidency stated that the road to our country’s recovery would be hard. He suggested that we will need to pull together to do this. I don’t want higher gas prices, but I do want to leave the world better for my children. We may have to endure sacrifice while we find better ways to fuel our production. Lower prices lead to higher use and lower prices cause us to think about our travel. Lately, I have seen more people driving with their windows down, more people walking, and more people on bicycles than ever before. The real answer to the energy crisis is better use of our energy. That won’t be the popular view and I drought if either presidential platform with openly suggest it before November. It hurts to spend almost sixty dollars to fill my tank, but exercise hurts, medicine (usually) does not taste good, and liver…well, lets not go there. Higher prices will make us demand effective alternatives.
Vernon@vernonmartincoaching.com
August 9, 2008 at 4:44pm by Marc Francois
higher gas prices will increase the demand for full efficient technology. That will decrease the amount of green house gasses put in to the air yearly.
So as far as GLOBAL- higher gas prices are good.
August 9, 2008 at 4:57pm by Carel Two-Eagle
I don't believe they necessarily are. I see the recent oil price mess as a warning of what we are facing globally if we don't get after wide-spread support or recycling and alternative energy sources. I'm a big fan of solar & wind & have been for decades. They have been around for billions of years; using them doesn't 'have' to be high-tech.. So if this dinosauric Indn grandma got the idea that long ago - MAY-BE before "many" of you started walking on the earth - may-be you ought to heed this latest wakeup call & apply your creativity, skills, & training to the problems now, while we still have a 'future' to contemplate. The majority culture has had more than one warning, but the supply of warnings is not limitless any more than anything else in this thoroughly quantized universe is. A word to the wise (ie, attentive)...
August 9, 2008 at 11:24pm by Marc Payen
Americans want to live in a fantasy world, there is no such thing as lower gas prices, the reality is energy prices will continue to rise and we most find alternative source of energy. China have showned that she is a major player in the international scene and they are hungry for resources; we need to wake up and look at a larger picture. We need to stop helping big oil and invest rather in alternative energy sources; this is our future and our way out of higher gas prices.
August 10, 2008 at 12:42am by Jay M
Or is global economic growth slowing due to speculation in the commodities markets? The reverse is an insane hypothesis - at least in the short term. The world economy, for better or worse, has it's basis in oil and, to a lesser degree, other commodities like corn (this is in part why they are called commodities). When speculation drives the price of these commodities above natural market levels, growth slows as everyone, from the largest multi nationals to Joe lunch box, starts to tighten their belts for the economic slowdown that is sure to follow. It's not just the commodities traders that act according to their self-interest. The historic and amazing part is how fast it happened. If we wish to transition away from oil to greener fuels, then prices should be allowed (or forced through sensible regulation) to fluctuate according to natural market forces (no, this is not an oxymoron). Saving the planet is a nice idea, but no one really (except apparently Al Gore and the U.N.) knows whether a.) it's necessary or b.) it's possible if it is necessary; but the folks just won't tolerate $9 gas 2 years from now if supplies of oil are plentiful - The economy, at least in the US, would be irreparably crippled and our essentially broke government would be completely helpless. The development of the U.S. in the last 100 years has been based on cheap and plentiful oil. This can't simply be turned on a dime. $5 gas was a shot across the bow, and the market responded by consuming less gas - oops, there is price elasticity after all. But there will be riots in the streets if speculative pricing is allowed to continue unabated. Thankfully, it's unlikely to happen due to the aforementioned elasticity discovery - after all, oil is still a volume play as long as it's still coming out of the ground at a faster rate than it is being consumed. Ingenuity and the human spirit will find alternatives to oil, whether because they are green or simply necessary due to dwindling supply, but they need to be given a chance to develop without coercion from the green fringe.