November 20, 2008
According to business executives, government officials, and economic experts who congregated earlier this week at the Global China Business Meeting to discuss China’s role in the global economy, it will take China and other emerging nations to lead the world out of what will probably be a long and intense recession. "The emerging countries are the solution to the overall global slump,” said Josep Piqué, chairman of Barcelona based budget airline, Vueling.
China, Brazil, India and other large emerging nations represent about 30 percent of global G.D.P.
But according to the New York Times' Tom Redburn, not everybody is confident that China and Asia’s other fast-growing countries will be able to spur a global recovery.
"China cannot replace the U.S. economy as the engine of global growth,” said Chang Dae Whan, chairman of Maeil, a South Korean newspaper company. “We’re going to need a huge stimulus package from the United States, on the order of $2 trillion, to get the global economy out of the financial crisis. So far, we’ve only seen about $700 billion. As a result, next year I expect to see more pain and fear.”
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Comments | 6 Total
November 20, 2008 at 12:55pm by Brendan Collins
Here's an analogy: if your car is sliding backwards down a snowy hill without chains on the tires (e.g. the US economy), the car can't get back up the slope. But, if your car does have chains on the tires (chains being equivalent to an economy unencumbered by decades of mismanagement and neglected adaptation), then you're good to go.
The point: the US simply has too much holding it down to recover quickly. Why not let the new guys on the block have at it for a while?
November 20, 2008 at 1:09pm by Louise Johnston
A new energy policy that utilizes Ammercian innovation can not just get the US economy back on track, but lead the world.
November 20, 2008 at 2:36pm by Mel Blitzer
We often forget that the "global economy" in which there is a "slump" is an invention, process,artifact,mind-set,set of rules, set of customs, way of doing business that emerged out of the economically developed societies and cultures of North America and Europe (the West).As we have seen, even the idea of saving is very different in China than it is in the Northern cultures. The emerging economies do not run or play necessarily by the same rules and because they hold a different world view and mind set their values and beliefs lead them to different kinds of behavior that often defies the "logic' of our economic/business models (think of Japan in the 70's and 80's , Malaysia in the SE Asian crisis of the 90's) much to their success and our consternation.
What the current crisis provides as an opportunity is for these countries to focus on the development and expansion of their own middle class and accompanying market rather than reply on being a prime supplier to the US and European markets.If you let the "new guys on the block have at it" "it"- global economic hegemony is not coming back.
In fact the current global crisis may signify the re-distribution of wealth on a global scale. Thanks to the mismanagement and lack of adaptation the adjustment is taking the form of an earthquake rather than a managed transition. Wealth and resources are not limitless on earth and we know that if all nations want the same level of economic development as in the US and Europe- 2 or 3 more earths will not allow it. When the limited balloon gets squeezed some nations will lose access to wealth while others gain it.
On the other hand do not count the US or European community out. They still contain an abundance of creativity and innovation built on centuries of technological progress that is still far in advance of other economies. How we respond to the current crisis will largely determine whether the inevitable redistribution of resources human and physical will happen in a measured peaceful and ecologically healthy way or whether such a movement will generate violence and chaos similar to what we experienced in the last century.
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Mel Blitzer
November 21, 2008 at 2:15pm by Antonio Scola
We are living to the core the real meaning of GLOBALIZATION.
Everybody makes mistakes. For sure, the USA is the big-giant and the ruler of many endeavors and discoveries.
But, China , Brazil and India (as many others countries) have intelligent people and resources.
Why not let these countries take the lead for while ?
Tony Scola
November 24, 2008 at 12:09pm by MIKE DYSON
December 5, 2008 at 7:31am by Brian Burgess
Tony,
The reason no other country steps up is because culturally they are taught to not take any risks. This is what prevents them from becoming innovators more than any other factor. Every country has a pool of bright people. But they tend to try to go to the places where innovation is a culturally acceptable way to live and work .. like the U.S.
Most of the best and brightest from every country on planet Earth are currently residing in the U.S., but that is not the FAULT of the U.S.