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August 21, 2008

"eBay will be permanently marginalized by Google." - Inspired by Erick Schonfeld, TechCrunch

Although eBay is making changes to its fee structure – emphasizing fixed prices over the auction model it's known for following, Schonfeld writes, "the Web has moved on and eBay is stuck in still waters." Page views are down 15% year-over-year, while the stock is down 26%.

eBay's main challenge, he says, "is that it is becoming easier and easier to find things to buy on the Web simply by searching for what you want on Google. During the early days of the Web, people needed a few big e-commerce sites they could trust and that could organize everything that was for sale online. That need was filled by Amazon and eBay. But now people are comfortable trawling the Net for the best bargains, and eBay is no longer the first place they go."

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August 21, 2008 at 9:51am by Rachel King

I'd agree that eBay has lost a lot of brand recognition and glamor that it once had. Just a few years ago, I used the site often, but now I don't even consider it. It might not be just Google, but perhaps a lot of retailers have made online shopping simpler and faster. Not to mention that if I want to sell anything at a fixed price, its more convenient and cheaper to do on Amazon than it is eBay right now. I wouldn't count eBay out altogether, but the online auction house has to do a lot more publicity in order to get back or get new customers visiting the site.

August 21, 2008 at 1:10pm by Ben Murphy

eBay has some work to do, but they're a giant and a pioneer. I wouldn't count them out. In fact, I'd be astonished if they didn't reinvent themselves and come roaring back (they'd be foolish not to)...

August 21, 2008 at 1:40pm by Charney Hoffmann

It is definitely easier to find things on the web than it used to, and google does a good job making the information accessible. But until google can sell themselves as a broker that has some ability to protect parties in a transaction, Google is unlikely to displace eBay. Even though eBay actually doesn't do much to protect its users other than go through the motions of listening to a complaint, the feedback system provides a means of reputation building that Google has yet to replicate.

August 21, 2008 at 6:35pm by Michael Carruth

One revenue stream that is interesting, but I have never heard spoken of, revolves around the notion that anytime someone is selling or buying (off-line as well as online) one of the first things they do is check eBay for the "reasonable market price." Whether it truly IS or not is another discussion, but the perception that "this is what these things are going for" is now very much reality on what buyers will pay, or sellers will take in a negotiation.

eBay has, in many ways, evolved into a Kelley Blue Book for all things. Want to see what your old "Lombard" era Powerbook is worth, where else can you find out in a glance that people are asking between $175 and $225?

What I want to know, however, is what the item actually SOLD for, and I want to know it over the past hundred, thousand, ten thousand, etc. listing instances for a given item.

Such an offering would be highly valuable info that people would subscribe and pay for to access. Whether or not this undermines the underpinnings of the "community" is certainly a discussion worth having...but simply from a "stickiness" and revenue point of view, I could see this working.

August 21, 2008 at 8:48pm by Jay Carr

eBays future success is dependent on the same thing all tech companies survive on, innovation. If Google is supplanting ebay, then they need to find a way to evolve with the market. The smart thing to do would be to create consumer level bidding software that can be what we end up seeing after we click on one of the links we find in Google. That way eBay keeps it's name out there, and can link back to it's main page from anywhere on the net.

But, if eBay lacks the foresight to evolve (whether it be my idea or another), it will likely die, yeah.

August 21, 2008 at 11:46pm by pat capozzi

I have been saying that Ebay is the 'sick man' of the web for quite some time. Their search function is pathetic. It is simply too hard to separate the 'wheat from the chaff' when you search. They have been left behind. I feel like I am back in the '90s

August 22, 2008 at 1:15am by George Williams

I don't think it is Google that will marginalize eBay, but rather it will eBay that marginalizes itself. By that I mean they are attempting to be something they are not: people have, historically, gone to eBay to buy hard-to-find or quirky items.

Now, eBay's management team made the conscious decision to compete directly with Amazon, et. al. by being a content 'aggregator.' Witness Buy.com listing their inventory on eBay.

Fact is, eBay has seriously diluted their franchise and it will become more and more difficult to convince those who provide content (sellers) who have left to come back. (And when a seller leaves, a buyer leaves also: I would guess that a very large majority of sellers were also buyers.)

August 25, 2008 at 11:07am by Tommy Toy

eBay has more to fear from Amazon.com than it does from Google, which has failed to make YouTube a great revenue generator and has other failures as well.

When I think of auctions I think of eBay.com. They have a true lovemark brand. If eBay has something to fear it is eBay itself. eBay is it's own worse enemy. They are upsetting their established auctioneers with higher fees and several have left to sell their wares on Amazon.com.

Amazon really has a better model, because it understands merchandising and eBay doesn't. eBay is a venue for sellers and buyers. No inventory. Amazon carries inventory and has a great system in place to manage that inventory and works through 100's of thousands of affiliates who embed the amazon logo on their site and this generates revenue for both Amazon and commissions for the affiliate. eBay cannot do this.

Google will always be known as a search engine company, and that's it. All these other features are really little "toys" that really do not generate alot of revenue for the company. 95% of its revenue is from search engine advertising.

If eBay is caught between a rock and a hard place, because it cannot add an affiliate program. This would upset their auctioneers even more, so it is kind of stuck in its business model.

To my way of thinking, if Google were to get into the online auction business it would be a minor revenue generator. It's lovemark brand says search engine, and it should stay focused on what it does best.

August 27, 2008 at 9:59pm by Nathan Ayers

Yes. But Google is already old technology & will soon be replaced.

August 28, 2008 at 12:28pm by Chris Kless

I think eBay has lost it's way and both Google and Amazon will take away it's ability to move forward as a marketplace for almost anything but used, rare, flea market retail, or those 'quirky' items. As an eBay Powerseller, the raised fees, removal of protections such as negative feedback for bad buyers, and poor searching ability are leading me elsewhere for many items I would buy. I will continue to sell used items on eBay but if I move into any other areas I'd be a fool not to leverage Amazon and Google to sell into better market(place)s. Ebay has thrown the Sellers under the bus in trying to gain more Buyers and grow it's numbers. It's moving away from it's original model and being as large as it is, those changes in course are difficult to make quickly and will lead to substantial loss of confidence(as it has already) by it's core. If I continue to suffer losses with nothing but empty promises to compensate me then eventually I'll follow the herd and move on. Ebay needs to stick to it's original model and focus on that. It's not as glitzy, glamorous, or as fast growing but then the surest path to failure is to try to please everyone(buyers, sellers, and shareholders).