Climate Power Brokers and Influencers: 10 People Who Count at Copenhagen

Burning the midnight oil trying to take in all of the side-events, plenaries, and informal meetings at events like Copenhagen--if indeed there are 'events like Copenhagen'--requires caffeine. Lots of caffeine. And caffeine is always better enjoyed with friends and colleagues. This morning's espresso-fueled breakfast debate centered on 'who really matters' at Copenhagen amongst 15,000 world leaders, negotiators, scientists, business chiefs, NGOs who have descended on Denmark for 2 cold weeks in December.

So, sitting here at the start of week 2 reflecting on this--actually during a session with the leadership from the International Panel on Climate Change, the global scientific body tasked with unraveling the science of climate change and providing a strong evidence-base for policy-making--here's my 'Top 10'. It's based on the need to shift through the gears of good science, good economics, good communication and, most importantly, from clear policy to real action from the public and private sector:

1. Professor Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the International Panel on Climate Change. "The Persistent Scientist"
Why? Because the IPCC made up of more than 600 climate scientists appointed by global governments is on one level the most important voice here. The IPCC's 4th report has driven the aggressive targets currently being discussed. So the IPCC is important for the impact it has already had and the extent to which the best science we have must continue to drive policy, regulation and business action.

2. Lord Nicholas Stern, Author of the Stern Report. "The Empowering Economist"
Why? Because Lord Stern's report "The Economics of Climate Change" was the first widely acclaimed and debated economic analysis of the costs and benefits of tackling climate change for the global economy. Although it built on plenty of previous work, it gave the UK government and other politicians a basis from which o evaluate policy impact and investment in both environmental and GDP terms. It also showed that tackling climate change wouldn't, if you'll pardon the pun, 'cost the earth', probably as little as 1-2% of GDP to 2050, and that a failure to do so would likely result in a 5-20% brake on global growth. 3. Al Gore, climate activist. "The Mass Communicator" Why? Because love him or loathe him or his approach to 'simplifying' the science, economics and solutions to climate change; he has reached popular culture and citizens more effectively and in greater numbers than anyone in his generation. That matters.

4. Martin Kaiser, Greenpeace International's climate policy advisor. "The Unrelenting Activist"
Why? Because the NGO community continues to keep the pressure on and organizations like Greenpeace, for whatever motivation, refuse to accept anything that doesn't match up to the science. So even as draft texts here at Copenhagen circulated last night talking of as much as 45% developed country emissions reductions on 2020 levels and 95% by 2050--a staggering prospect--Martin commented in a PointCarbon article "It is imperative that they strengthen it [the draft UN text] considerably and fill in the gaps, so that it produces the legally binding deal that averts climate chaos."

5. Yvo de Boer, Executive Director of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. "The Climate Czar"
Why? Yvo is the chief climate czar for the UN and tasked with shepherding a political deal at Copenhagen that matches up to what the science says we need to do (stay below 2 degrees by 2050) while balancing the interests of the 'big beast' countries and the tension between the developed and developing economies. No mean feat.

6. Barack Obama, U.S. President. "The Prospective Deal-maker"
Why? Because without the U.S. there is no global deal. Full stop. But also because his attendance in the second week, albeit may be unlikely to lead to a binding legal treaty, greatly increases the chances of a political agreement to be fleshed out during the next 12 months in Bonn and at the next UN Climate Summit in Mexico next winter.

7. Hu Jintao Chinese President. "The Conflicted Decision Maker"
Why? Because, as with the US, without China there is no global deal given China is now the world's largest net emitter of greenhouse gases (albeit well down the scale in terms of emissions per person). But also because China is itself caught in the 'Catch 22' that the world also finds itself in. It needs to grow to reduce poverty and raise the living standards of a billion people but also recognizes that its stake in a stable global (and local environment) is essential. To solve the 'China dilemma' is to solve the global climate dilemma. And China has already started to take bold steps in terms of policy, investment and commitment to reduce the carbon-intensity of its growth