Betting On The Shutdown

Placing bets on when the federal government will reopen.

Debt Ceiling Forecasting

Betting on America's debt ceiling.

Betting On The Fed

Market participants can place predictions for many government and central bank policies.

Pipeline Predictions

The American Civics Exchange takes predictions on many infrastructure projects.

Euro Gambling

Participants can predict when or if Greece readopts the drachma.

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When WIll The Government Shutdown End? Place Your Bets Now

A new online prediction market is offering a $100 prize for accurate guesses about when the government shutdown will end.

A new online prediction market is offering a $100 prize to a site user who most acccurately predicts when the president and Congress will reopen the federal government. The American Civics Exchange is an Internet-only futures market founded by two investment professionals who want to offer futures trading (for the uninitiated, basically gambling on upcoming events) to government policy. Until the market receives approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, users can only make transactions with play money. But American Civics Exchange will give $100 to the trader with the best guess.

Founders Flip Pidot and Paul Lang told industry publication Nextgov, "Even though there’s no actual financial exposure for the traders, we’re hoping having some tangible, real money incentive will push them to play well and trade rationally. It’s our hope, and our thesis, that this will yield more accurate prices in terms of predictive capacity."

Guests to the site can predict futures on government policy and major geopolitical events such as Greece leaving the Eurozone. This isn't the first time entrepreneurs or government officials attempted to create a futures market for wonks. Several years ago, defense think tank DARPA began lobbying for a futures market on terrorist attacks. The idea was shut down because of Congressional opposition, mainly centered around the idea that militant organizations could make cash profits by anonymously betting that their own attacks would succeed.

[Image: Flickr user Joelk75]

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  • Rick Marro

    I wonder if they actually have the chutzpah to collapse the US banking and monetary system , FINALLY ?? But they most likely wont and Americans will be worse off as usual.