So How Did Nate Silver Do With His Oscar Predictions?

We've been up all night analyzing vast tracts of data (translation: Nate's predictions and last night's results) to bring you the stats star's results.

You may have heard that the Oscars were handed out last night. And on Friday, Nate Silver published his Academy Award predictions, based on a simpler set of data than 2009 and 2011, the previous two years in which he had pored over acres of movie-related data in order to pre-empt the opening of the envelopes. So, how did he do?

Of the six categories that he predicted--the six big ones, let's be honest about it, Silver got four right. He got the girls, so to speak--both Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway sailed up on stage, with varying degrees of success, to collect their statuettes. And he nailed Daniel Day-Lewis, whose august portrayal of Lincoln was, Silver felt, the surest of sure things. And he was right for Argo--the real Argo, that is--winning Best Picture. So, where did he slip up?

Ang Lee's awards shelf will now have a second Best Director Oscar for his Life of Pi--Silver thought Spielberg's Lincoln would win it. And Christoph Waltz, er, waltzed away with the Best Supporting Actor for his role in Django Unchained. Silver's money was on Lincoln star Tommy Lee Jones. Still, four out of six ain't bad. B+.

The full list is below. Did the Oscar committee dole out any surprises for you, or was it just as you thought it would be? Do tell us in the comments, please.

1. Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained.

2. Animated Short Film: Paperman.

3. Animated Feature Film: Brave.

4. Cinematography: Life of Pi

5. Visual Effects: Life of Pi

6. Costume: Anna Karenina.

7. Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables

8. Live Action Short Film: Curfew

9. Documentary (short subject): Inocente

10. Documentary: Searching For Sugar Man

11. Foreign Language Film: Amour

12. Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

13. Sound Editing (TIE): Skyfall, and Zero Dark Thirty

14. Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables.

15. Editing: Argo

16. Production Design: Lincoln

17. Score: Life of Pi

18. Song: Adele, Skyfall.

19. Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio, Argo.

20. Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

21. Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

22. Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

23. Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

24. Picture: Argo

[Image: Flickr user ebbandflowphotography]

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4 Comments

  • Edomaniac

    I was 21/24. Silver's predictions will probably get better. At this point he doesn't have much in the way of a starting dataset. That and, the academy changes things so often it is hard to use previous data to predict things.

  • Jack Ryan

    I got 15/24, which I realize statistically is slightly worse than 4/6...but come on those were the six easiest categories to predict and I got them all except for Best Actress, I went with Riva

  • PatHobby

     Still, four out of six ain't bad. B+.???
    Anybody who was paying attention at all could have gotten at least 4 of 6.  Waltz was a surprise but Ang Lee was the favorite along with Spielberg.