Our ability to foresee the economy is plagued by an institutionalized muddleheadedness. When it comes to the economy, we have a serious foresight deficit. Consider this: Most business- and world- leaders and eminent economists failed to foresee correctly the recent upheavals in the global economy - the financial crisis of late 2008, the recession and the subsequent recovery.

However, neither the recession nor its end should have come as a surprise. I show why in a guest column in CEO World magazine, The recession has ended and other surprises. The surprises happened because signals in plain sight were resolutely and repeatedly ignored !

How do we fix this economic foresight deficit? Stay tuned.