On May 22, 1453, the moon rose in eclipse over Constantinople, today Istanbul, and arguably redirected the course of world history. By that day Ottoman soldiers had spent nearly a month bombarding the massive walls protecting the last vestiges of the Byzantine Empire with no clear end in sight. But when the moon rose in eclipse it was taken as a sign that Constantinople would soon fall.

When people believe they are going to win, they are more likely to win. When they fear they will fail, they fail. Great leaders have understood for millennia that in order to guide armies and organizations, one must control where they think they are going, and that means to shape the strategic narrative (the story) they are living in. You can do that in part through words – retelling the past – but such efforts are more effective if you can support them with physical signs of the story you want people to live in. This could be an eclipsed moon or, in the case of football, the numbers on a scoreboard.

In last Sunday’s Super Bowl game, the New Orleans Saints’ coach understood this. As the game’s first half was coming to a close the Saints' coach faced a choice he had already made once before. His team could choose between taking a safe bet on getting 3 points with a field goal or taking a risky shot at getting 6 with a touchdown. Earlier in the game the coach had chose the riskier bet … and lost.

But this time the consequences would be more prolonged. If he took the risky bet and lost, the Saints would go into halftime with 3 points vs. their opponent’s 10. They’d have 30 minutes to ponder their 3 to 10 score and would naturally start creating stories about what this meant. "We are losing," they’d probably think.

But instead, the coach this time went for the safer option. His team took the easier 3 points and went into halftime with a score of 6 to 10. This score looks dramatically different than 3 to 10. It fits an entirely different narrative. It does not fit “we are losing”; it fits “we are just a few points behind.” The “losing” narrative has one logical ending: we will lose. But the “few points behind” narrative fits a more helpful narrative: “we will catch up.”

You want to think carefully about what narrative your people are “living in” and present, or create, evidence to support the narrative that you want them to hold.

1.    What narrative are your people telling themselves now?

2.    What narrative do you WANT them to “live in”?

3.    What evidence will help them jump to the new narrative?